The landscape of the National Football League changes every week. Where we thought teams lined up before Week 1 can (and usually does) end up being completely different to where they actually end up come Week 17. But all teams are focusing on one goal, even if it calls for a season to be tanked in the meantime. Everyone is aiming for the Super Bowl. And that’s exactly what we’ll focus on here. Every week, I’ll highlight three teams that most improved their Super Bowl winning odds.
Week 4 is a wrap and we’re now headed into Week 5, so let’s get started. All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cleveland Browns (2-2, +2600)
So, it hasn’t been the start to the season that Browns fans thought they were going to witness, but at least it’s not the start that they’re used to. After a statement win on the road against the Ravens, the Browns are on top of the AFC North. And while there are ever-insightful people pointing out that the Steelers are only one win behind after a Monday Night Football win against the Bengals, I think we should all keep some perspective here. Cleveland shortened its Super Bowl odds from +3000 (14th-shortest) to +2600 (T-11th-shortest.)
I’m still not buying into the Browns being the best team in this division, but it’s hard to argue against their talent. And to think Odell Beckham Jr. only caught two passes for 20 yards in Week 4 when his team scored 40 points. We can thank Nick Chubb and his three touchdowns for that. Now the Browns travel to San Francisco to take on the undefeated 49ers on Monday night, who will be fresh off their bye week. Cleveland is winless at home this season, so perhaps a road trip bodes well.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-2, +1300)
I’ll admit, the Eagles surprised me with a road win against the undefeated Packers on Thursday. And of course, a win like that will certainly impact a team’s Super Bowl odds. Philadelphia, now at 2-2 and second in the NFC East behind Dallas, had the most significant shortening of odds by any team in the top half of the league in Week 4, going from +2000 (T-7th-shortest) to +1300 (6th-shortest.) The Cowboys, who are 3-1, have +1200 odds to win the big game, so that’s a big compliment to Philly from the DK Sportsbook.
Next up, the Eagles have the pleasure of facing the 0-3 Jets. This game has the second-biggest point spread of the week, with the Eagles as 13.5-point favorites. It’s hard to envision any scenario that would result in a Philly loss, but maybe the bye week worked wonders for New York. I highly doubt that’s the case, even if Sam Darnold (mono) is somehow able to take the field again. The Eagles have a tough road ahead, so I don’t expect to see them in the same position in a few weeks.
New Orleans Saints (3-1, +1200)
I’ve been mentioning the Saints’ Super Bowl odds on Twitter for the past two weeks, after they grew significantly with the injury to Drew Brees. Two wins later, and the Saints find themselves sitting pretty at 3-1 with Teddy Bridgewater leading the way. Their odds were at +1400 (6th-shortest) for two straight weeks, though following a win against the undefeated Cowboys, those odds shrunk to +1200 (T-3rd-shortest.) The past two weeks were likely the best time to bet on New Orleans, although +1200 would still be pretty profitable.
Drew Brees was seen doing thumb exercises during warmups on Sunday, and he’s reportedly recovering very well. The earliest he could return is in Week 8 against the Cardinals, but the Saints may be wise to let Bridgewater handle that one, giving Brees the bye week to fully recover. They’ll host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers next week, and though the Saints have won 11 out of the last 15 against them, the Bucs are cruising after a 55-40 away win over the Rams. I expect the Saints’ defense to be a bit more capable than the Rams’ D was, keeping New Orleans on top of the NFC South at 4-1.
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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