The New England Patriots host the New York Giants to open Week 6 on Thursday Night Football, and are heavy favorites. The Patriots opened as a 16-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the line sits at 16.5 as kickoff approaches. They’re expected to blow the Giants out, and it could flip the game script into a run heavy situation.
If that happens, it’s reasonable to ask what to make of Tom Brady as a fantasy football option. He’s generally a must-start, but will he get enough passing attempts to be a strong start?
Fantasy football analysis, Patriots QB Tom Brady
This marks the fourth game this season the Patriots have been at least a two-touchdown favorite. They were an 18-point favorite against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2, a 21-point favorite against the New York Jets in Week 3, and a 16.5-point favorite against Washington in Week 5. They beat the Dolphins 43-0, beat the Jets 30-14, and beat Washington 33-7.
In DraftKings contests, Brady had 24.66, 23.14, and 27.92 DKFP in those three games, respectively. In Week 1, as a 5.5-point favorite against Pittsburgh, he had 28.64 DKFP. In Week 4, as a seven point favorite against Buffalo, he had 4.7 DKFP.
In traditional fantasy leagues, the performances track similarly. He had 24.7, 20.1, and 23.9 fantasy points in the three double digit favorites games, and had 27.6 and 3.7 fantasy points in the single digit favorite games.
It’s a small sample size, so we shouldn’t extract too much from it. That being said, there’s no reason to sit him. Even if you think you need big days across the board against a particularly tough opponent, Brady vs. the Giants is well worth the start. Even if the Patriots blow them out, Brady will get plenty of opportunities early to run up his fantasy total.