Have you ever heard Ben Folds Five’s song “Battle of Who Could Care Less”? (It’s great, if you’re into that kind of music) Well, there’s a chance that it was actually written back in 1997 in anticipation of this very game. Because, unless you’re related to Tua Tagovailoa or betting, there is no reason to even acknowledge this game’s existence. Fortunately for us, there are some betting angles worth monitoring in this matchup of winless teams.
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The Dolphins are 0-4 and have the third-worst defense of all time according to DVOA. At least they’re better on offense, right? Technically, yes. Their offense is only the eighth worst of all time by DVOA. Make no mistake, Washington is also very bad on both sides of the ball, but at least they aren’t historically bad, and their defense showed some signs of life in the first half against the Patriots in Week 5. Washington’s defense was especially good up front, notching four sacks and five tackles for a loss. The Patriots were fourth in scoring entering Week 5, and Washington held them to just 12 first half points. Both Washington and Miami are very bad, but the Dolphins have been significantly worse so far.
A point in Miami’s favor, however, is that they are at home and coming off a bye. Since 2002, home teams are 107-93-4 (53.5%) after a bye. Bizarrely, that’s significantly worse than away teams’ post-bye record (113-85-3; 57.1%). Therefore, while both playing at home and coming off a bye should help the Dolphins, bettors should be wary of overvaluing the home-bye combination.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Washington at Dolphins
Point Spread: Dolphins +3.5
Total Points: 41.5
Money Line: Dolphins +148; Washington -167
Overall: Washington 0-5; Dolphins 0-4
ATS: Washington 1-4; Dolphins 0-4
O/U: Washington 3-2; Dolphins 1-3
Notable Prop Bets
First to score 15 points -152; Parlay Washington money line and under +200; Alternate point spread Washington -10.5 +250
Total touchdowns (both teams combined) under 5.5 -315; Dolphins to score under 19.5 -114
- Washington has won seven of their last eight games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games.
- Each of the Dolphins’ last 10 day games against NFC East opponents have gone under the total points line.
- Washington has lost the first quarter in four of their last five games as favorites.
- Terry McLaurin has scored a touchdown in three of his last four outings.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for details.