The Saints will look to strengthen their hold on the NFC South Sunday, but the Jaguars are better than their 2-3 record implies. It may come down to which team does a better job of living up to its potential, as both teams have been highly inconsistent. Though both teams seem to possess strong defenses, they are both in the bottom half of the league in yards and points allowed, and both have below-average defensive DVOAs. While their schedules haven’t done the defenses many favors, there is a lot more than difficult scheduling involved in sinking those stats.
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This might be a good matchup to bet on a lot of unders. Not only do both teams boast defenses that should be better than their early statistics imply, but both teams operate at among the slowest paces in the NFL. The Saints have been the second-slowest team through five games, while the Jaguars are in the slowest third. Both teams also rank in the bottom seven for red-zone conversion percentage. The Saints fare slightly better than the Jaguars there, but the Jaguars’ defense has also been better than the Saints’ defense in the red zone.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Saints at Jaguars
Point Spread: Saints +1.5
Total Points: 43.5
Money Line: Jaguars -121; Saints +106
Overall: Saints 4-1; Jaguars 2-3
ATS: Saints 3-2; Jaguars 3-2
O/U: Saints 3-2; Jaguars 3-2
Notable Prop Bets
Alternate point spread Saints -4 +180; First team to score -107
Jaguars to score under 22.5 -114; Total Jaguars’ TDs under 2.5 -143
- The Saints have won each of their last eight games against AFC opponents.
- The Saints have covered the spread in each of their last nine games in October.
- Five of the Jaguars’ last six games at TIAA Bank Field have gone under the total points line.
- Michael Thomas has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Saints’ last five day games against AFC opponents.
- Alvin Kamara has scored at least one touchdown in six of the Saints’ last seven day games against AFC opponents.
- D.J. Chark has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Jaguars’ last five games.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for details.