The Miami Dolphins are one of the worst teams in recent memory. They dealt away all sorts of talent to accumulate draft picks as part of a broader rebuilding process. They’re effectively tanking, and the way the past five games have gone, they’re doing a really good job at it.
Given how bad they are, it’s no surprise oddsmarks have to put up near historic point spreads week in and week out. They opened the season as a touchdown underdog to the Baltimore Ravens before people were fully prepared for how bad they were and how good Lamar Jackson would be. The three following weeks they were 18, 22, and 15 point underdogs. Last week, coming off a bye and facing an abysmal and winless Washington team, they were still getting six points as a home underdog.
So it’s no surprise that they are getting a huge number of points going on the road to face the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are a 17-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, and as noted by Pro Football Talk, this is the most points the Bills have laid since 1992. Looking through a database, we found that in that season the Bills were a 19.5 point favorite at home against the New England Patriots and a 19-point favorite at home against the Indianapolis Colts. The season before they were a 20.5-point favorite at home against the Colts. Those are the only point spreads higher than this week’s 17 dating back to at least 1984.
The Bills won all three of the games and went 2-1 against the spread. It’s interesting but not particularly relevant to this game that the point total went under in two of the three games. This weekend, the point total is installed at 40.5. It is the second lowest behind Saints-Bears (38.5). Even with the huge point spread, both offenses struggle enough that the under makes a lot of sense.
The Bills are likely to win on Sunday, but bettors think it will be closer than expected. 54 percent of the handle and 59 percent of tickets bet at DraftKings Sportsbook are on the Dolphins to cover.
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