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Patrick Mahomes injury could mean nearly ten points to the point spread

The Chiefs suffered a devastating injury in Week 7. We break down what Patrick Mahomes’ knee injury could mean for point spreads in the next few weeks.

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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes walks off the field after a play in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Editor’s update: Mahomes did not suffer any significant additional damage to his dislocated knee cap, per NFL Network. Here’s a look at a potential timeline.

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Green Bay Packers in Week 7 on Sunday Night Football, and 24 hours ago, the Chiefs would have been the favorite. Prior to last night, the Westgate Superbook released lookahead lines for Week 8, in which they provide an estimate of where the line will land when it officially opens Sunday evening. They had Chiefs installed as a 3.5-point favorite.

A lot can change 24 hours.

In the second quarter of the Chiefs win over the Denver Broncos, starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a knee injury that appeared to be a dislocation. He was able to walk off under his own power, but early reports have him missing at least three weeks. He will undergo an MRI on Friday to find out if there is any ligament damage in his knee. If there is ligament damage, the absence would be longer.

When the Packers-Chiefs line opens Sunday evening, Green Bay will be favored. One oddsmaker estimates Mahomes’ injury could cost the Chiefs up to nine points each week. The number of points will vary by opponent, but if this is the case next week vs. Green Bay, we could see the Chiefs as big as a 5.5-point underdog.

Their next two games after that are at home against Minnesota and on the road against the Titans. If Matt Moore breaks out in a big way next week, the nine points might not apply. But if Moore plays like he has for most of his career, the Chiefs will likely be a two or three point underdog at home against Minnesota and maybe a little bit more when they travel to Tennessee. But that will depend on how a full game of Matt Moore looks against Green Bay, and whether or not the Chiefs defense looks like the ‘85 Bears like they did last night.

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