Even bettors might not want to actually watch this game. The Bills’ defense isn’t quite as good as the Patriots’, but they are third in defensive DVOA and yards allowed per game and fourth in points allowed per game. When the Dolphins faced the Patriots, the scored zero points and accrued only 184 total scrimmage yards – 67 of which (36%) came on their final drive in the fourth quarter. They’re going to have a hard time doing much better than that in Buffalo – the first time the Dolphins have played a game north of Dallas this season.
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The Bills, on the other hand, should see little resistance to their offensive efforts. Washington is the only team that has failed to score 30 against Miami. Miami has forced only two turnovers this season – one INT and one fumble. They’ve allowed four 100 yard rushers, and four more to top 50 yards. They rank dead last in total yards and points allowed per game. Not only do they have the worst defensive DVOA, but they have the third-worst defensive DVOA of all time through five games. The Bills’ offense hasn’t done much this season, but they’re good enough to take thorough advantage of the Dolphins.
As if this matchup wasn’t lopsided enough – the Bills are coming off their bye week.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Dolphins at Bills
Point Spread: Dolphins +16.5
Total Points: 40.5
Money Line: Bills +750; Dolphins -1000
Overall: Dolphins 0-5; Bills 4-1
ATS: Dolphins 1-4; Bills 4-1
O/U: Dolphins 1-4; Bills 0-5
Notable Prop Bets
Dolphins to score under 12.5 points -118; Total touchdowns (both teams combined) under 4.5 -143
Last team to score -177; Parlay Bills money line and under -104
- The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
- Seven of the Bills’ last eight games have gone under the total points line.
- Kenyan Drake has scored the first touchdown in three of the Dolphins’ last four road games against AFC opponents.
- Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in six of his last seven appearances at New Era Field.
- Frank Gore has scored a touchdown in each of the Bills’ last two games as favorites.
- Robert Foster has scored a touchdown in three of his last five appearances at New Era Field.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for details.