Welcome back to our weekly countdown of the best QB-WR stacks! The four teams on bye this week include a ton of DFS favorites, making Week 7 a fun opportunity to experiment with new options. And with some of the most favorable passing game matchups playing in prime time, we have to look a little deeper to find plays worth targeting. Nonetheless, there remain a number of good options to choose from. However you want to build your lineup, we’ve got a stack for you.
The concept behind stacking a QB with his WR is simple; both players benefit from each completion, doubling the benefit of that play for your fantasy lineup. As Adam Levitan pointed out, 79 percent of the lineups that won DraftKings’ Fantasy Football Millionaire contests used a QB stack in their lineup. With the significance of stacking in mind, this article aims to highlight the best stacking options for Sunday’s main slate.
When I expect a blowout, I usually prefer to stack a QB with the short-yardage possession-style receiver. I go for the kind of player who will get the targets on third and six late in the game, when the offense is trying to keep the drive alive so that they can continue to bleed the clock. That would be Cole Beasley ($4,700) in this game. But the Dolphins have been so bad that teams haven’t even needed to use those players – Julian Edelman caught only four balls against them, his season low. Furthermore, they have been absolutely gashed by deep-play threats this season, allowing more than 26 DKFP to each of Marquise Brown, Terry McLaurin and Amari Cooper. The WRs who are putting up good DFS weeks against Miami are the ones who break free of the Dolphins miserable attempts at coverage and score a long TD. That’s Brown’s specialty.
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As a running QB, Allen can keep accruing fantasy points after the Bills build up a big lead. The Dolphins allowed at least 23 DKFP to four of their five opponents so far, with only Washington’s Case Keenum falling short.
If you’re a regular reader of this column, I’d like to start by apologizing for the fact that this is the first time I’ve been able to include Minshew Mania. He’s a delight. He finally has a matchup where I can highlight him.
So, the Bengals are bad. They’re not Dolphins-level-historically bad, but they are terrible. They’ve allowed at least 20 points in each game this season. If it weren’t for the Dolphins, the Bengals would rank dead last in yards allowed and defensive DVOA. Every QB they’ve faced has scored at least 16 DKFP and scored at least one TD. Three opposing QBs exceeded a 124 passer rating, and two others ran for at least 90 yards – speaking of running, the Bengals are last in rushing yards allowed, behind even Miami, which makes this a tempting spot to unleash the rare QB-RB stack with Leonard Fournette ($7,000).
Minshew has scored at least 16 DKFP in five of his six games. He has some upside as a scrambler, and impressive poise when he has time to throw. The reality here is that my favorite stack in this game is Minshew-Fournette. Most teams haven’t had to throw enough to make two WRs viable against the Bengals, and the majority of the double-digit WRs they’ve allowed have been slot WRs more similar to Dede Westbrook ($4,900). That said, the three best WR performances against the Bengals have been mixed-use players like Chark – guys who split time between the slot and outside and pose more of a deep threat. Chark dominates the Jaguars’ targets and air yards. I’m comfortable rolling with all three of Minshew, Fournette and Chark in the bizarre QB-RB-WR triple stack.
Whenever I find a QB salary and matchup I like, the first thing I check is what kind of receiver has succeeded against that opponent. Sometimes it’s a slot guy, or a technical route runner, or whatever. But sometimes – as is the case with the Seahawks – the result is super straightforward. Quite simply, whoever a team’s best WR is, regardless of what kind of WR they are, does well against the Seahawks. Cooper Kupp, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham, Juju Smith-Schuster – you get the idea. So while DK Metcalf ($4,800) does leap off the page as a discount, if you can afford Lockett then you are better off not overthinking this one.
As for Wilson, he’s simply underpriced. He’s scored at least 28 DKFP in four of his six games, yet he’s the fourth QB on the slate? DraftKings’ shows the Ravens’ as the 10th-hardest QB matchup, but that is heavily influence by their cake-walk schedule and most of their secondary is injured. The Ravens have faced Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton and Mason Rudolph/Devlin Hodges. They allowed at least 19 DKFP to the other three QBs they faced, including a struggling Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray in his second NFL game.
It’s important not to pay too much attention to small sample-size “trends” when picking DFS plays. A lot of the time, statements like “oh, Player X always does great against Team Y” are often misleading. But, for whatever reason, sometimes those patterns repeat enough times over enough years that we are forced to acknowledge them. Through 14 career games against the Texans, a gigantic sample by NFL standards, Hilton averages 5.4 receptions for 103 yards. He has scored nine TDs in those games. That’s tough to ignore, especially when the Texans have already allowed five WRs to score 20 DKFP and catch for at least 80 yards this season.
With the exception of a disappointing Week 5, Brissett has been pretty good this season. Over his first four games, he completed 65% of his passes and posted a 102.1 passer rating while exceeding 16.5 DKFP in each contest. The Texans have allowed four of their opposing QBs to top 20 DKFP, and Gardner Minshew reached 17 in his first career start.
The Falcons’ defense is confused. They still haven’t figured out the whole “try to stop the defense from scoring” thing. It’s a big problem for the Falcons and their fans, but it’s been great for fantasy managers savvy enough to target them. Kupp has been the dominant figure in the Rams’ passing game, and he also is their closest approximation of the WR type that has been most dominant against the Falcons. The Falcons have allowed five WRs to top 20 DKFP and another seven to score in double-digits. The 20-point scorers have all been target hogs – no surprise their – and all but T.Y. Hilton were at least six feet tall. Kupp is the largest of the Rams’ WR trifecta, and their most used in the red zone. The Falcons also give up most of their yardage to slot receivers, which is where Kupp lines up most of the time.
Now, this probably won’t come as a surprise to you, but a team that has allowed 12 double-digit WR performances in only six games has also been a pretty nice matchup for QBs. Deshaun Watson put up 44.7 DKFP against the Falcons, and the Vikings in Week 1 are the only team that didn’t top 20 QB DKFP against them. The Vikings were up 14-0 just seven minutes into the game, after which point they attempted only six passes – with that context, Cousins’ 1.4 DKFP per pass attempt against Atlanta is actually incredible.
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