A lot of things have changed since the Jets last played the Patriots in Week 3; however, despite the presence and pristine spleen of Sam Darnold, this remains one of the worst possible skill-position matchups in the NFL. Again, you can pretty much throw out all Luke Falk related statistics from that contest in New York in mid-September, yet the fact that Jets’ wide receivers caught just seven passes combined that day remains slightly daunting. I mean, it’s not as if non-Falk quarterbacks haven’t also struggled to get their wideouts the football when squaring off with New England. Coming into Week 7, the Patriots are only surrendering 121.5 yards per game to opposing WR corps - the second-lowest figure in the entire league.
In particular, Robby Anderson is not someone I’m looking to invest in this Sunday. Jason McCourty has allowed a mere 0.18 fantasy points per route covered to this point in 2019 - the fourth-lowest mark among all qualified corners. Now, to be fair, Jonathan Jones, who will matchup with Jamison Crowder, has actually given up the fewest fantasy points per route (0.16); but at least Crowder has the opportunity reach value through volume. Anderson does not have such a luxury. Anderson needs to break off a big play to be viable and that’s simply not been a formula for success against New England. Not only have the Patriots allowed just two passing plays of over 40 yards so far this season, they’ve also conceded a paltry 12 catches of 20-plus yards - the third-lowest amount of any team in the league.
Fantasy Football Analysis, New York Jets WRs Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson
It’s a two-game sample, so I’d advise not going too crazy, yet Crowder’s averaged 10 catches and 98.5 yards when Darnold is lining up behind center. His touchdown expectancy is low, as New York’s implied team total is justifiably one of the lowest on the slate, but it’s important to remember that a negative game script means increased drop backs for Darnold. There’s a reason that no squad has induced a higher opponent pass rate than New England at 68.9 percent. I’d expect Crowder to see double-digit targets with this increased volume and that, by itself, is enough to make someone a FLEX consideration.
Start Crowder. Sit Anderson.