In past seasons, this matchup has been one that we could typically expect to be a close game. Since John Harbaugh took over as the Ravens’ head coach in 2008, he and Mike Tomlin have just about split wins, with Tomlin and the Steelers slightly ahead 13-12. This season, their rivalry kicks off in Pittsburgh in Week 5 where the two teams find themselves one win apart. After avoiding an 0-4 start by crushing the Bengals on Monday night, Mason Rudolph (DFS salary $5,100) and the Steelers head into Sunday as 3.5-point underdogs. If you asked me two weeks ago, I would’ve guessed this spread to be much bigger. But suffering two consecutive losses in Weeks 3 and 4 brought Baltimore right back down to earth.
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Lamar Jackson ($7,100 and highest-priced QB) faced Pittsburgh twice last season, but that was still at the time when Joe Flacco was the starter. Jackson enters Week 5 with 238 rushing yards, nearly doubling the next closest quarterback. In preparation for his versatility, the Steelers signed Taryn Christion, a former FCS quarterback at South Dakota State who played about as similar to Lamar Jackson as one can. Though they’ve lost all three of the Killer B’s, the Steelers are obviously not giving up on the season.
With a taste of victory, perhaps Pittsburgh can string together a few wins and establish AFC relevance without Big Ben. In my opinion, I can’t see a Rudolph-led team keeping up with the highest-scoring offense in the league. When you really look at how bad the Bengals are, you’ll realize how unimpressive that Steelers win was. Home field advantage won’t be enough to beat Baltimore, nor will it be enough to beat the spread. The Steelers’ only hope is to force a few turnovers, which isn’t completely out of the question as they’re tied for second-best in that category. With that said, I’m expecting Mark Ingram ($6,300) to be heavily relied on, logging his third multi-touchdown game of the season.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Ravens at Steelers
Point Spread: Steelers +3.5
Total Points: 43.5
Money Line: Ravens -190; Steelers +165
Overall: Ravens 2-2; Steelers 1-3
ATS: Ravens 1-3; Steelers 2-2
O/U: Ravens 3-1; Steelers 1-3
Notable Prop Bets
- Mark Ingram to score 2+ TDs: +400
- Mark Ingram over 67.5 rushing yards: +105
- Mason Rudolph over 0.5 interceptions: -200
- James Conner to score a TD: -115
- The Steelers have won 15 of their last 17 games against AFC North opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in six of the last seven games between the Ravens and Steelers.
- Six of the last eight games between the Ravens and Steelers have gone UNDER the total points line.
- James Conner has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four appearances at Heinz Field.
- Mark Andrews has scored a touchdown in each of the Ravens’ last three games as favorites.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Steelers’ last four day games against AFC opponents.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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