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What to do with David Montgomery in Week 5 fantasy football

Montgomery’s usage has been steadily climbing up and by now he’s the clear go-to option in Chicago’s backfield. His numbers tell two different stories: underperformance, and a massive week about to happen. We take a look at Montgomery’s upside in London’s Week 5 game against Oakland.

Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery runs with the football past Minnesota Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen in game action during a game between the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings on September 29, 2019 at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL. Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Only a weird season opener against Green Bay has kept the Bears from a perfect 4-0 start. What I don’t understand, though, is what kept the Bears from using David Montgomery more, earlier. In the first two games of the year, the rookie only played in 28 and 27 snaps respectively, losing reps to Mike Davis. Finally, in Week 3, Chicago came to its senses and left Mike Davis out of the game giving him just one snap and not playing him at all in Week 4. Meanwhile, Montgomery and Tarik Cohen have carried the load lately, with the former playing the cowbell role in the backfield and Cohen being used more as a receiver than a rusher. With his usage pattern trending upward and his adaptation to the league improving, Montgomery looks to be on the right path.

Don’t get too caught into this uptick in snaps, though. Although Montgomery is the only Chicago RB to be on the field for more than 50% of them and is getting tons of opportunities, his production has been way under what could be expected from him. So far Montgomery has carried the ball 58 times for 200 yards and one touchdown while he’s added 61 receiving yards on 8-for-12 receptions. Montgomery’s most concerning trait through four weeks has been his horrid 1.6 yards after contact (third-lowest among RBs with 25-plus carries). The huge volume he’s seeing (he ranks 16th in rushing attempts) has helped him mitigate the problem, though. On the other hand, Montgomery has a solid fantasy points floor with three performances of 10-plus points so far. He’s underperforming when comparing his actual points (42.1) to his expected ones (52.5), so his first explosion could be just around the corner ...

Fantasy football analysis, Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery

... and that corner could be named after the Raiders. While Oakland doesn’t look too bad at stopping the run (they have allowed the 17th-most points to RBs), they gave up 196 yards to Dalvin Cook two weeks ago and 99 in Week 1 to the Broncos’ committee. What you might have overlooked, though, is that Oakland is just plain bad against the passing game and they enter this game as the underdogs. Chicago could easily take an early lead exploiting the Raiders’ defense through the air and leave the work in Montgomery’s hands for a huge part of this one. The game script will help Montgomery, he has no competition in the backfield with Mike Davis done for good, and remember backup Chase Daniel is Chicago’s starting quarterback for now — and backups rely on the safest options often, which include short passes and hand-offs to their running backs. I can see Montgomery racking up a ton of points for the first time this weekend in London.

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