It’s all about mixing and matching salaries in DFS. You can’t field a team full of stars and thus you must find the best values around the slate and fade those who come overpriced for the production they will return.
So don’t get fooled by the boldness of the names, and rather look at their games. Sometimes highly coveted quarterbacks can put out a dud, while others can go under-the-radar in Sunday’s main slate.
Here are the best and worst values at the position for Week 6 (values from DraftKings).
Week 6 - DFS QB Best Values
Teddy Bridgewater, NO (at JAX) — $5,300
I’m not going to lie. Bridgewater proved me totally wrong in his last game against Tampa Bay. In his three games before Week 5, Bridgewater heavily targeted both Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook (RB and TE, the safest options to pass to in offense), and the former saved the day with a few ridiculous yards after the catch gains (on passes thrown to him just one yard above past the LOS). In Week 5, though, Bridgewater looked much better and his game more rounded. Against the Bucs Bridgewater completed 26 of 34 passes for 314 yards and four (!) touchdowns with just one pick. His average yards per attempt rose from 6.4 to 9.2 and he had his second-best fantasy performance ever with 31.3 DKFP. Jacksonville’s defense against QB is dead-average, ranks 16th in fantasy points allowed to the position and just gave up 34 points to Carolina in a 27-34 loss. Bridgewater should get his fourth consecutive win.
Kirk Cousins, MIN (vs PHI) — $5,200
It pains me to include Cousins here knowing how Minnesota’s offense operates, but at this price Killer Kirk is a true value for Week 6 against Philadelphia. Facing the Giants, Cousins had his best game of the season so far completing 22-of-27 attempts for 306 yards and two touchdowns. Cousins threw the ball past the first-down marker on average (11.3 yards per attempt), and although the Vikings still relied heavily on the run-game (27 passes to 34 rushes) it was only him and Adam Thielen connecting to score two times in scoring-plays other than field goals. The Eagles are giving up 22.6 fantasy points per game to QBs—almost all of them through the passing game—and have surrendered the fifth-most passing yards. If Cousins can keep up this efficiency and involve Stefon Diggs more in the game, he could have his best weekend of the season so far.
Gardner Minshew II, JAX (vs NO) — $5,000
Back to that tasty game in Jacksonville versus New Orleans, Minshew also profiles as a value for this weekend’s matchup—the O/U isn’t bad at 45 with the Saints open as favorites by just one point. Just when it looked like Minshew was coming down to earth he went and put on a show against Carolina, throwing for a career-best 374 on 26 completions for two touchdowns. Not only that, he was able to add 42 yards on the ground! Even in a loss, he ranked QB6 overall in Sunday’s DK main slate with 27.2 fantasy points, also his best mark of the season. The Saints have been solid against RBs during the past three weeks (no team has rushed for more than 63 yards against them) so in a game that could be tight all day long, we should expect Minshew to air it out often and well. He might regress a bit, but even with that, his floor will remain at 20 fantasy points or more.
Week 6 - DFS QB Worst Values
Jared Goff, LAR (vs SF) — $6,100
Each passing week Goff gets closer to become the poster boy of the “Empty Calories QB” movement. Yes, everything counts in fantasy football, and a yard is a yard, and whatever you want, but Goff is so frustrating. He has four games of 268-plus yards already, and his last two passing performances finished with 517 and 395 yards on 74 completions to go with three touchdowns. Oh, I forgot to mention he’s thrown six interceptions in his last three games, though. Los Angeles is in a two-game losing streak, but San Francisco’s stout defense (seventh-best against QBs in fantasy points allowed) won’t make things easy. In fact, Goff has only won seven of 36 games against top 10 pass defenses and his value relies on his passing yardage—the 49ers are surrendering just 226 yards to QBs per game. That situation, to me, doesn’t merit paying the eight-highest salary of quarterbacks in the slate.
Carson Wentz, PHI (at MIN) — $6,000
Wentz line from Week 5 looks as bland as anything. He completed 17 of 29 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. Those are Flacco-esque numbers at best. But the reality is that he basically coasted through the game and minimized the effort. He just didn’t need to do more. Against Minnesota he will need to put on a full 60-minute performance—the O/U is high at 44.5 and Philly enters as a three-point underdog—but the Vikings defense has been rock-solid lately. In their past two games, they have limited quarterbacks to under-204 yards and allowed just two touchdowns. All of that for an average of 12 fantasy points per game allowed to QBs in that span. Wentz will need to do more than completing under-10-yard passes for touchdowns to beat Minnesota, as those short throws won’t keep working forever.
Andy Dalton, CIN (at BAL) — $5,400
What a letdown from Dalton in his game against Arizona. The signs were there we could be in for a disappointment—he did nothing against Pittsburgh in Week 4—but just passing for 262 yards on 27 completions against a middling Cardinals team just wasn’t great. He helped Cincy with two touchdowns and tying the game at 23-23 late, but ultimately he flopped. As I mentioned in Goff’s blurb, Dalton is also one of those “glaring numbers that go for nothing” players. He also has four games with over 250 yards and seven combined touchdowns so far, but he’s thrown four picks and the Bengals are 0-5. Baltimore (11-point favorite) looks primed to destroy Cincinnati in Week 6. Dalton could rack up 300 yards, throw an interception and lose another game (probably his ceiling), or he could just have a hard day finding his only reliable receiver (Tyler Boyd) due to the barrage of injuries in Cincy and ruin your DFS play. Skip the Red Rifle and go for a cheaper option with higher upside (any of the three best values talked above fit the profile).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is chapulana) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.