The NFL wrapped up Week 5, and we have a pretty clear understanding of who the truly awful teams are. We might see a little bit of movement into or out of this group, but we know who will be the primary competitors for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
The worst teams in the league include the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Washington. The New York Jets are the other winless team, but when they get Sam Darnold back from his bout with mono, they become a much more competitive team. It will be difficult for them to get into the playoff race, but they’ll win a few games at least.
DraftKings Sportsbook is back with their latest odds for which team will claim the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. They have odds for all 32 teams, but below are the top 11. After +10000 odds, it’s a little silly to consider teams for the top pick. Some of those teams could very well go in the tank, but we’ll deal with that when the time comes.
If you’re looking for a little outside analysis on this, Football Outsiders uses DVOA to come up with odds for the top pick and a top five pick. FO had Miami at a 63.3 percent chance of “earning” the top pick last week, but after their Week 5 bye, Miami is down to 60.8 percent. Cincinnati is next at 16.4 percent, followed by Washington (11.4), and the Jets (5.3).
Week 6 features what for now is the biggest matchup of the year for purposes of the top pick. The Miami Dolphins host a Washington team that is in turmoil, having just fired head coach Jay Gruden. The team will move forward with interim head coach Bill Callahan, and it’s hard to know what to make of them — other than being really bad. Washington is a 3.5-point favorite in this game in part because while Miami is actively working to be bad, Washington is bad without trying. They publicly think they can be competitive and just stink in spite of that.
Another potentially big matchup this weekend will see the 1-3-1 Arizona Cardinals hosting the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons got their first victory of the season last week, while the Falcons were blown out by Houston. Frankly, one win might be one too many given how bad the Dolphins, Washington, and Cincinnati are looking. But in the meantime, the loser of this game will be hanging close in the battle for No. 1. Neither wants it, but they’re looking to be in position to compete for it.
Here is the current draft order, focused on the top eight who all have zero or one wins. For teams that are tied, the weaker strength of schedule gets the higher pick. SOS courtesy of Tankathon.
- Cincinnati Bengals (0-5, .507 SOS)
- Washington (0-5, .580)
- Miami (0-4, .481)
- New York Jets (0-4, .481)
- Miami Dolphins — PIT pick (1-4, .480)
- Atlanta Falcons (1-4, .583)
- Denver Broncos (1-4, .596)
- Arizona Cardinals (1-3-1, .547)
Here is a list of DraftKings Sportsbook odds for the top 11 teams to claim the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Miami Dolphins: -125 —> -150
Cincinnati Bengals: +700 —> +400
Washington: +600 —> +500
New York Jets: +1400 —> +1200
Arizona Cardinals: +550 —> +1400
Pittsburgh Steelers: +3300 —> +1600
Denver Broncos: +1100 —> +2500
New York Giants: +5000 —> +4000
Atlanta Falcons: +6600 —> +5000
Oakland Raiders: +5000 —> +10000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +10000 —> +10000