Jared Goff numbers this season can be deceiving. He’s had three games in which he’s passed for more than 370 yards, even reaching 517 in Week 4. Those games, though, came against the 31st-, 23rd-, and 25th-best defenses in the league. He’s passed for two touchdowns four times, but again against sub-par teams, and he’s already been intercepted eight times along with fumbling the ball six times. He surely hasn’t been a bad fantasy play—he’s only fallen under 14 points two times—but in the two games he’s played against above-average defenses he’s flopped badly to the point of finishing his game against San Francisco with a horrid 78 yards on 13-of-24 completions and two fumbles.
In Goff’s last game in Week 8—another sweet matchup against the hopeless Bengals—he amassed 372 yards and threw two touchdowns on just 17 completions (54.8% completion rate, though). He avoided errors, didn’t fumble the ball, and finished the day with a good 26.6-point fantasy outcome. Much like other quarterbacks with similar profiles (Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston) Goff is able to rack up massive numbers often but his negatives heavily impact his upside, cutting his fantasy ceiling a lot. He’s a good play in good matchups but avoidable in the rest of his games.
Fantasy Football Analysis, Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff
This weekend presents a good challenge to see where Goff is truly at. Pittsburgh isn’t averaging the best numbers against opposing quarterbacks—they rank 17th in fantasy points given to the position—but the Steelers are a tougher rival than any other Goff has faced since Week 1 ,other than San Francisco. The most concerning fact regarding this Goff-Steelers matchup is that Pittsburgh has allowed the eight-fewest passing yards through Week 9. Goff’s value comes mostly from there, so he could hit a well this weekend.
Although Goff has limited his errors lately—he hasn’t been picked or fumbled in his last two games—Pittsburgh has intercepted the second-most passes (11) this season, ranks fifth in sacks with 29, and has forced the fourth-most fumbles (10). The Rams will also be missing Brandin Cooks (concussion) and enter the game as a 3.5-point favorite, so they might turn to their backfield more often than not. All in all, I’d advise passing on Goff this weekend.