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UPDATE #2: James Palmer is reporting sources are claiming this is a pre-determined rest week and the “Chiefs want him fresh down the stretch.” I could see that, but either way, his ROS fantasy value takes a hit.
UPDATE: LeSean McCoy is INACTIVE for Week 10. This boosts Damien Williams’ value even further and he is a strong start against the Titans.
LeSean McCoy’s fumble in Week 8 against the Packers cost his team big, and it cost McCoy his lead back job, as Damien Williams took control of the backfield post-fumble. The following week Williams touched the ball 14 times on 72 percent of the snaps while McCoy had four touches on 10 percent of the snaps. Darrel Williams played more snaps than McCoy in Week 10 but had one touch.
McCoy has been the better runner this season. Even with his 91-yard touchdown run last week, Williams still trails McCoy in rushing yards, 371-225 and has 3.8 yards per carry to McCoy’s 5.2 yards per carry. There’s no way around it, McCoy is the better offensive player, but that might not matter due to his two fumbles compared to Williams’ zero.
Fantasy football analysis: Kansas City Chiefs RBs Damien Williams, LeSean McCoy
The Tennessee Titans are no slouches defensively. On the year, they have given up the tenth-fewest fantasy points to running backs and rank third-best in DVOA against the run. On the season, only one running back has topped 100 rushing yards against them, and that was Christian McCaffrey, who eats most of the league’s defenses for breakfast.
On the year, the Titans have allowed 3.7 yards per carry and three touchdowns (two to McCaffrey) to Nick Chubb, Marlon Mack, Leonard Fournette, Devonta Freeman, Frank Gore, Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, Austin Ekeler, Melvin Gordon, Ronald Jones, and McCaffrey.
It looks likely that Patrick Mahomes will play, which should help spread out the defense and keep the Titans from stacking the box, but I still don’t expect Williams to be able to get much accomplished on the ground. If he can still command the bulk of the touches like he did last week, Williams should be able to piece together good fantasy numbers, especially through the air. So far, the Titans have given up the sixth-most receptions and tenth-most receiving yards to running backs.
Traditional Fantasy Start/Sit Recommendation
Start Williams.
Sit McCoy.
DraftKings DFS Recommendation
Williams costs $4,900, and McCoy is at $4,400. As long as Williams gets the bulk of the work, he has some value at this price as a receiving back paired with Mahomes. His ability has not popped much this season, and I’d rather McCoy has the lead role for fantasy, but if wishing made things true, I’d have an elephant farm.