It’s all about mixing and matching salaries in DFS. You can’t field a team full of stars and thus you must find the best values around the slate and fade those who come overpriced for the production they will return.
So don’t get fooled by the boldness of the names, and rather look at their games. Sometimes highly coveted tight ends can put out a dud, while others can go under-the-radar in Sunday’s main slate.
Here are the best and worst values at the position for Week 11 (values from DraftKings).
Week 11 - DFS TE Best Values
Greg Olsen, CAR (vs ATL) — $3,900
We knew it could happen, and it did. Greg Olsen went back to his early-season ways this past weekend when he finished the game with eight receptions on 10 targets (both season-highs) for 98 yards. He only lacked scoring a touchdown, but it wasn’t needed to make his bettors happy to the tune of 17.8 DKFP. Sure, Olsen has put on middling performances all season long but he is still more than capable of having the monster game occasionally. He already had a couple of 20- and 25.5-point games in Weeks 2 and 3, so the upside was always there and a bad defense against tight ends as Green Bay’s helped Olsen chances. This week Carolina hosts Atlanta and with Kyle Allen entrenched as the Panthers QB1 for the rest of the season Olsen has turned into one of his go-to men and should keep seeing high opportunities. The Falcons are dead-average (16th, 12.1) in DKFP per game allowed to TEs this season but just gave up six receptions for 74 yards to Jared Cook and have allowed 15-plus DKFP in three of their five last games. The outlook is great and Olsen’s salary is only the eighth-highest in the slate.
Noah Fant, DEN (at MIN) — $3,700
For someone as hot as Fant has been lately, his price for this upcoming weekend looks like a glitch. It took a while for Fant to explode, but he finally did in Week 9 against Cleveland. The rookie was able to haul in three passes (four targets) for a massive 115 yards and a score. All in all, a 23.5-DKFP game that made him achieve one of the top-20 performances of the seasons for a tight end. It hasn’t been for a lack of opportunities for Fant, as he’s been Denver’s No. 1 tight end since the start of the season, but his average outcomes had not been great to date. That being said, Fant has had three games of seven or more DKFP this season on top of last week’s one. The only thing he’s lacking is red zone looks, as he’s only been targeted twice inside the 10-yard line in nine games. Minnesota’s defense ranks 17th in versus tight ends (DKFP allowed per game), and have conceded more than five receptions and 50-plus yards to the position in each of their last two games. Again, at the price Fant is available for and with his outing two weeks ago he looks like more than a good option to play this weekend.
Week 11 - DFS TE Worst Values
Zach Ertz, PHI (vs NE) — $5,000
As always happens at the tight end position, picking against one of the best players around sounds crazy. Doing so against someone that just put on a monster game is just mental. But Ertz’s game against Chicago in Week 9 looked more like an outlier than any other thing. Truth be told, Ertz torched the Bears to the tune of nine receptions for 103 yards and a score (28.3 DKFP). The problem with that game is that it came after a three-game slump in which Ertz had topped at 52 receiving yards and 8.4 DKFP, of course without a touchdown in any of those three outings. Coincidentally, his worst game of the year came in Week 8 against Buffalo, the second-best defense against tight ends. Do you know who Ertz is facing next? New England, which happens to have the third-best defense against the position. For someone valued as the fifth most-expensive TE this week, the matchup looks horrid and the ROI might be completely nullified by the Patriots. Just so you know, they have limited eight of the nine TEs they have faced to under 60 yards or fewer than nine DKFP.
Darren Fells, HOU (at BAL) — $3,800
Fells returns from a bye and things don’t look too bright for him in Week 11. Houston faces a stout Ravens defense that is allowing under 10 DKFP per game to tight ends and has limited four of their last five opponents to fewer than nine fantasy points and under 40 receiving yards. Fells himself took advantage of a great matchup against Oakland in Week 8 (six receptions, 58 yards, two scores) but he sandwiched that good game between two terrible performances in Week 7 (27 yards on two receptions) and Week 9 (one reception, one yard... with a touchdown) that make me worry about his true talent level. Add to that the presence of Houston’s TE2 Jordan Akins potentially getting targets and snaps from him. All of this makes me be inclined to fade Fells this weekend.
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