After a slow start to the season, the Pacers are finally hitting their stride. Indiana dropped three straight to open 2019-20 with losses to the Pistons (twice) and Cavaliers. That was without All-Star guard Victor Oladipo, who remains sidelined due to a knee injury, though is nearing a return. More recently, the Pacers have been without big man Myles Turner (ankle), who has missed the past six games. This has allowed both PG Malcolm Brogdon and PF/C Domantas Sabonis to step up big.
Brogdon, who is looking like an All-Star early on, is on pace to shatter previous career highs in almost every statistical category. Most notable, he enters Monday averaging 8.9 assists, third-most in the NBA. Sabonis is also seeing a big uptick in usage, playing at least 36 minutes in four of five games while recording four straight double-doubles for Indiana heading into Tuesday vs. the Thunder.
Point Spread: IND -3
Over/Under Total: 212.5
OKC Moneyline: +130
IND Moneyline: -155
Malcolm Brogdon Point Total: 19.5 — OVER (-122), UNDER (+101)
Domantas Sabonis Assists Total: 4.5 — OVER (+136), UNDER (-167)
Player to Score First Field Goal: Domantas Sabonis (+460), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+550), Chris Paul (+1000)
Breaking down betting lines, DFS options for Thunder vs. Pacers
At first glance, this is the type of game that screams UNDER. Both the Pacers and Thunder are adequate on defense and could be missing key players. I already mentioned Turner and Oladipo are out for Indiana, but SG Jeremy Lamb (ankle) could remain out, and Thunder C Steven Adams is dealing with a knee injury. Considering all the injuries, potential defense and pace of each team, again, the UNDER looks appealing.
As far as DFS goes, It’s hard not to like Brogdon ($7,600 on DraftKings) and Sabonis ($8,400) considering the minutes and usage each is getting. Sabonis has smashed value in five straight games thanks to increased assist numbers; he’s averaging 5.6 dimes per game in that stretch. With other games offering more appeal from a fantasy perspective on Tuesday’s slate, Brogdon and Sabonis actually make for decent GPP plays with potentially suppressed ownership. Even T.J. Warren ($5,700) isn’t a bad play if Lamb remains out. We know the type of ceiling Warren has and his ownership should also be low.
It’s difficult to like the Thunder considering they are in the lower-third of the League in points per game (107.3) and play at a slow pace, but that’s brought a lot of their key players down in price on DraftKings. Most of OKC’s regulars are decent value plays, though Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,000) may be the least appealing despite his usage. Danilo Gallinari ($6,400) has come on strong recently, Chris Paul ($6,700) offers some appeal as a cash option, and Nerlens Noel ($5,000) would be a strong overall play if Adams remains out.
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