UPDATE: The betting public is heavily backing the Steelers in this game, with over 80 percent of bets and money placed.
The Thursday night division rivalries continue this week with an NFC North matchup in Cleveland. Both teams are coming off of wins, but the Steelers are certainly the hotter team as they bring a four-game winning streak into Week 11. Though, after picking up their first home win of the season last week, the Browns will see this game as a must-win if they still want any shot of making the postseason. With just six weeks to go, we’re at the point where teams will begin facing mathematical elimination from the playoff picture.
Let’s not forget that the Browns are actually 1-0 in the division right now, beating the Ravens back in Week 4. Baker Mayfield (DraftKings Showdown salary $9,000) got his first multi-passing-touchdown game of the season under his belt against one of the league’s stingiest defenses last week. He’ll go up against an even tougher side in the Steelers, who come into Week 11 with the second-most takeaways (26) in the league. Combine that with a quarterback who has thrown the second-most interceptions (12) this season and you have yourself a terrifying matchup for Cleveland.
In order to avoid spiraling out of control, the ball will likely be put into Nick Chubb’s ($10,600) hands. He’s plateaued at 20 carries the past four games, adding an average of 3 catches over that span. But if the Browns fall behind, Mayfield will hopefully build off of last week’s target share, which was finally led by Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,200) with 12. Jarvis Landry ($8,000) is getting 11 targets per game over the last three, but I’d expect that number to drop against a defense that’s constantly putting pressure on the QB.
As for the Steelers, the game plan should remain the same. Let Mason Rudolph ($8,400) play within his abilities. Focus on short passes. And now, with James Conner ($10,800) back in action, exploit the league’s sixth-worst rushing defense (134.9 yards per game). If the Steelers stick to what works, relying on their defense to do most of the heavy lifting, they’ll leave Cleveland with a five-game winning streak. The last time these two met on a Thursday night in Ohio was back in 2009, and the Browns took that game 13-6. I’m expecting another low-scoring game this time around, but in favor of the Steelers.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Steelers at Browns
Point Spread: Steelers +2.5
Total Points: 40
Money Line: Steelers +130; Browns -148
Overall: Steelers 5-4; Browns 3-6
ATS: Steelers 5-3-1; Browns 2-6-1
O/U: Steelers 3-6; Browns 4-5
- Ryan Switzer (WR) - OUT
- Benny Snell Jr. (RB) - OUT
- Roosevelt Nix (FB) - OUT
- Anthony Chickillo (LB) - Questionable
- Joe Haden (CB) - Questionable
- Eric Murray (S) - OUT
- Olivier Vernon (DE) - OUT
- Ricky Seals-Jones (TE) - Questionable
- Kendall Lamm (T) - Questionable
Notable Prop Bets
- James Conner to score a TD: +130
- Minkah Fitzpatrick to make an INT: +350
- Odell Beckham Jr. under 61.5 receiving yards: +124
- Nick Chubb over 81.5 rushing yards: -112
- The Steelers have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against AFC North opponents.
- The Browns have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven home games following a win.
- Each of the Steelers’ last seven road games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Jarvis Landry has scored a touchdown in each of the Browns’ last two games.
- Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his last 11 appearances.
- James Conner has scored two touchdowns in each of the Steelers’ last two games against the Browns.
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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