Patriots coming off the bye are the pick

The Philadelphia Eagles host the New England Patriots in a Week 11 matchup that isn’t quite a battle of titans it might have looked like this summer, but it’s still an important matchup. The Patriots are 8-1, but have the Ravens breathing down their necks. The Eagles are 5-4 and in a race to the wire for the NFC East with the also 5-4 Cowboys.

Point spread

The Patriots are a 3.5-point road favorite against the Eagles at DraftKings Sportsbook. The point total is 44.5. This is the sixth time the Patriots will be road favorites this season. They’ve been a road favorite in at least seven regular season games each of the past three seasons. This is the first time the Eagles have been a home underdog since the 2018 playoffs.

Both teams are coming off the bye for this game. Doug Pederson is 1-2 against the spread in his three years as Eagles head coach. Bill Belichick is 12-13 ATS when coming off a bye week in his career as a head coach. One notable stat for the Patriots. They are 44-8 straight up after a loss in the Bill Belichick era.

Injury report

Patriots to watch: S Patrick Chung, TE Matt LaCosse, DT Danny Shelton

Eagles to watch: WR Alshon Jeffery, LB Nigel Bradham, RB Darren Sproles, RB Jordan Howard, OT Jason Peters

Pick against the spread

I’d like the number to be a little lower, but even still, I’m laying the points on the road with New England. People will talk about the Ravens providing a blueprint for beating the Patriots, but unless Lamar Jackson can be cloned, that game is not exactly the greatest blueprint in my mind. Carson Wentz will be short-handed at wide receiver, and while the Patriots run defense is not particularly great, I don’t think Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders are quite the backs to run all over it.

I think we see the Patriots bounce back off the bye. I don’t see a blowout happening, but I see something in the four-to-ten point range.

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