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Patriots coming off the bye are the pick

The Patriots and Eagles square off coming out of the bye. Bill Belichick has success coming off losses. Look for New England to bounce back from their loss in Baltimore.

New England Patriots wide receiver Mohamed Sanu celebrates his touchdown with quarterback Tom Brady during the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Eagles host the New England Patriots in a Week 11 matchup that isn’t quite a battle of titans it might have looked like this summer, but it’s still an important matchup. The Patriots are 8-1, but have the Ravens breathing down their necks. The Eagles are 5-4 and in a race to the wire for the NFC East with the also 5-4 Cowboys.

Point spread

The Patriots are a 3.5-point road favorite against the Eagles at DraftKings Sportsbook. The point total is 44.5. This is the sixth time the Patriots will be road favorites this season. They’ve been a road favorite in at least seven regular season games each of the past three seasons. This is the first time the Eagles have been a home underdog since the 2018 playoffs.

Both teams are coming off the bye for this game. Doug Pederson is 1-2 against the spread in his three years as Eagles head coach. Bill Belichick is 12-13 ATS when coming off a bye week in his career as a head coach. One notable stat for the Patriots. They are 44-8 straight up after a loss in the Bill Belichick era.

Injury report

Patriots to watch: S Patrick Chung, TE Matt LaCosse, DT Danny Shelton

Eagles to watch: WR Alshon Jeffery, LB Nigel Bradham, RB Darren Sproles, RB Jordan Howard, OT Jason Peters

Pick against the spread

I’d like the number to be a little lower, but even still, I’m laying the points on the road with New England. People will talk about the Ravens providing a blueprint for beating the Patriots, but unless Lamar Jackson can be cloned, that game is not exactly the greatest blueprint in my mind. Carson Wentz will be short-handed at wide receiver, and while the Patriots run defense is not particularly great, I don’t think Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders are quite the backs to run all over it.

I think we see the Patriots bounce back off the bye. I don’t see a blowout happening, but I see something in the four-to-ten point range.

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