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Panthers are undervalued in Week 11 vs. Falcons

The Falcons and Panthers square off in Week 11, with a smaller line than makes sense. There could be some value in Carolina this weekend.

Kyle Allen of the Carolina Panthers hands the ball off to Christian McCaffrey against the Green Bay Packers during the first quarter in the game at Lambeau Field on November 10, 2019 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

The Carolina Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons in Week 11 in a must-win for Carolina. The Falcons are out of the playoff race but got a huge morale-boosting win over their rivals in New Orleans last week. Meanwhile, Carolina lost to the Packers last week and will look to at least maintain pace with the Saints this week, and potentially gain some ground on them.

Point spread

The Panthers are a 4.5-point home favorite against the Falcons at DraftKings Sportsbook. The point total is 49, which is the fourth highest of the weekend. Atlanta has dominated this series of late, winning and covering the spread in six of the last seven matchups. It’s gone under the point total in four of those seven games. Prior to that, Carolina had won five of six and covered six of seven.

Injury report

Falcons to watch: RB Devonta Freeman, TE Austin Hooper, S Kemal Ishmael, QB Matt Ryan, CB Desmond Trufant, P Ryan Allen

Panthers to watch: CB Donte Jackson, OT Greg Little, CB James Bradberry

Pick against the spread

The Falcons won what was effectively their Super Bowl last week. I do think they’ll win some more games this year, but this line is too low. The Panthers had two separate red zone trips against the Packers that came up with no points — an interception ended one drive and the Packers had a goal line stand to close out the game on the other drive. That game looks different if they find more red zone success.

The Panthers are undervalued in this game. The Falcons defense looked good against the Saints last week, but I think that’s the high water mark for the season. They’ll regress this week and look for Christian McCaffrey and company to capitalize. I’m laying the points with the Panthers.

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