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The 49ers are my least comfortable pick in Week 11

The Cardinals and 49ers square off in Week 11, in a rematch of a fun Thursday Night Football contest. This is a tough one to call.

San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa pursues Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray in the fourth quarter at State Farm Stadium. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco 49ers host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 11, and this is a tough matchup to figure out. The two teams squared off in Week 9 on Thursday Night Football. The 49ers jumped out to a 21-7 lead and then a 28-14 lead and looked like they would roll, but Kyler Murray helped lead his team back. Arizona lost, but they made a contest of it.

Two weeks later, they meet in Santa Clara, with the 49ers coming off their first loss of the season. They took an early lead on the Seattle Seahawks on Monday, only to come up short in overtime. Meanwhile, Arizona has now lost three straight after a three-game winning streak. They hung close the last two weeks, but it hasn’t been enough.

Point spread

This game has a particularly intriguing line at DraftKings Sportsbook. The 49ers opened as high as a 13.5-point favorite. The line has since come down and as of Friday is at 49ers -9.5. The money has backed the Cardinals in a big way, and the line has moved accordingly. There is the 49ers coming off a loss, the 49ers losing Joe Staley to a broken finger, George Kittle likely not playing on Sunday, and Emmanuel Sanders being a huge question mark.

Pick against the spread

My heart says 49ers, my head says don’t touch this game. I’m much more comfortable laying the points at 9.5 than ten, but if Emmanuel Sanders joins Kittle on the bench, it’s hard to justify betting on this game.

The 49ers defense has one game against Kyler Murray under its belt, which is a big plus. At the same time, they’re coming off a physical grueling game against Seattle and have a slightly shorter week coming off Monday Night Football. Murray is not as good as Russell Wilson, but he’s proving to be an incredibly dangerous threat.

I’m going to back the 49ers as long as the line remains under ten. I’m not super jazzed about it, and I’d say I’m less confident in this pick than most any pick I’ll make this week.