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Look for the Chiefs to win, but not cover in a shootout

The Chiefs and Chargers should put on an entertaining matchup in Week 11 on Monday Night Football. Here’s a look at why I’m betting the underdogs.

Melvin Gordon of the Los Angeles Chargers gets tackled by Chris Jones of the Kansas City Chiefs during the second quarter at StubHub Center on September 9, 2018 in Carson, California. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers square off in Mexico City to close out Week 11 in what should be a really fun Monday Night Football contest. We get a pair of top ten offenses facing defenses that are shaky at best. This game has huge AFC playoff implications, but if you just want to see a ton of points, tonight is gonna be a wild one.

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite and the DraftKings Sportsbook point total is 52.5. Technically this is a home game for the Chargers, but a) it’s a neutral site and b) the Chargers might end up with better home field advantage in Mexico City than they do in Carson, California.

Kansas City is on a roll in this series. They’ve won nine of the last ten matchups and have covered in seven of those games. In their past ten games as a favorite against the Chargers, the Chiefs are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS.

The run defenses of both teams are problematic, to say the least. The Chiefs rank 31st in run defense efficiency while the Chargers rank 26th at Football Outsiders. The Chiefs rushing attack ranks 21st in efficiency, but with Damien Williams expected to play after a family matter had him listed as questionable, this is a chance for him to build off a solid Week 10.

Where this gets troublesome for the Chiefs is the Chargers rushing attack. Melvin Gordon is starting to look like the Gordon of old and Austin Ekeler remains a dynamic complement. I suspect we see Gordon have one of his better games of the season in this matchup.

Meanwhile, the Chargers secondary has been playing better in recent weeks, including holding Aaron Rodgers to 161 yards passing two weeks ago. Patrick Mahomes is only getting healthier at this point, but this will be a big challenge for the superstar.

I see the Chiefs winning this one something along the lines of 31-27 or 34-31. A win is all that matters for the Chiefs, but I see the Chargers run game and pass defense keeping this one close to get the cover. The point is just a little too large for my taste, but I suggest betting the over.

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