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Taking the points with the Colts because the line is just a little too big

The Colts and Texans square off in Week 12 looking to take a lead in the AFC South. We break down the matchup and offer a pick against the spread.

Jonathan Williams of the Indianapolis Colts takes a handoff from Jacoby Brissett during a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 17, 2019 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

We get a fun matchup to open Week 12! The Houston Texans host the Indianapolis Colts in a matchup with huge AFC South implications. The teams are tied atop the division at 6-4 and Indianapolis has one win under their belt against Houston.

The Texans come into this game as 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, but the Colts are rolling with six straight wins against AFC South opponents. The Colts have also covered the spread in five of the last six matchups between these two teams. Indianapolis is 5-4-1 ATS while Houston is 5-5 ATS.

Injury report

Colts

The big question is wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. He has been struggling with a calf injury and while he was listed as a full participant on Wednesday’s final report, it was an estimated practice. It sounds like he has a good chance of playing, but it seems like this could come down to the wire on Thursday.

Out: WR Parris Campbell (hand), RB Marlon Mack (hand), CB Shakial Taylor (ankle), S Khari Willis (concussion)

Questionable: TE Mo Alie-Cox (thumb), TE Eric Ebron (ankle), WR T.Y. Hilton (calf), CB Rock Ya-Sin (ankle)

Texans

The Texans have three big names that are game-day decisions. Will Fuller, Tashaun Gipson, and Bradley Roby were limited participants all week, but they were estimated practice reports.

Out: S Mike Adams (concussion), CB Lonnie Johnson (ankle), S Justin Reid (concussion, shoulder)

Questionable: WR Will Fuller (hamstring), S Tashaun Gipson (back), CB Bradley Roby (hamstring)

Pick against the spread

This comes down to that hook. Picks against the spread are as much about the number as they are about the teams. In a divisional matchup on a short week, 3.5 points is a half point too many. Both teams are dealing with a host of injuries, but I don’t think it’s enough to create a problem for either team to fall too far behind. Marlon Mack’s absence is notable, but given the state of the Texans defense, I think Jonathan Williams and Jordan Wilkins can find success against them. It’s enough that I’ll take the Colts +3.5.