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Point spread, total, money line, injury report and more for Bucs-Falcons in Week 12

A shootout is brewing in the battle for the bottom of the NFC South. We break down notable odds, including the point spread, trends, and ATS history.

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley spikes the ball after a touchdown in the third quarter against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

A divisional showdown between two 3-7 teams that has the potential to shootout? Sounds great for fantasy football, but a bit more difficult for sports betting. The Falcons were one of the worst teams in the league through two months of football, but the bye week worked some serious wonders. They’ve now held the Saints and the Panthers under 10 points and have their first winning streak of the season. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are looking to bounce back from their loss to the Saints last week, in which their opponent doubled their score. Which team, for now, will avoid last place in the division?

This is the season’s first meeting between these NFC South rivals. The Falcons have won the last five, and five of the last six games have gone over 51.5 points (Week 12’s highest total). Both teams are allowing over 26 points per game. Add that to each team’s tendency to allow a lot of air yards with the fact that the Falcons and Bucs rank third and fourth respectively in offensive passing yards per game, and we have a recipe for a high-scoring matchup.

Matt Ryan (DFS salary $6,700) got back to his 300+ passing yard ways last week by feeding nearly half to Calvin Ridley ($6,500). There’s no reason to think this week will be any different, and with Austin Hooper likely out, Ridley and Julio Jones ($8,000) will be the go-to targets once again. It’s been three weeks since Mike Evans ($7,300) or Chris Godwin ($7,200) have gone over 100 receiving yards. If Jameis Winston ($6,200) doesn’t throw multiple interceptions, this is the perfect spot to get at least one of those guys back on track. In his past two outings, Winston has averaged three INTs, attributing to his team’s league-worst 25 turnovers.

Based off of recent performances, the Falcons should blow out the Bucs. And while that could be the case, Tampa Bay has yet to put up less than 17 points this season. I’ll take the over and the Falcons to cover.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Buccaneers at Falcons

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Buccaneers +3.5
Total Points: 51.5
Money Line: Buccaneers +155; Falcons -180

Records

Overall: Buccaneers 3-7; Falcons 3-7
ATS: Buccaneers 2-8; Falcons 4-6
O/U: Buccaneers 8-2; Falcons 3-7

Injury Report

Buccaneers:

  • Anthony Nelson (OLB) - OUT
  • M.J. Stewart (DB) - OUT
  • Carl Nassib (OLB) - Questionable

Falcons:

  • Devonta Freeman (RB) - OUT
  • Kemal Ishmael (S) - OUT
  • Austin Hooper (TE) - OUT
  • John Cominsky (DE) - Questionable
  • Takkarist McKinley (DE) - Questionable
  • Kendall Sheffield (DB) - Questionable

Notable Prop Bets

Buccaneers:

  • Chris Godwin over 5.5 receptions: -107
  • Cameron Brate to score a TD: +350

Falcons:

  • Matt Ryan over 27.5 completions: +105
  • Julio Jones over 95.5 receiving yards: -112

Betting Trends

  • The Falcons have won each of their last five games against the Buccaneers.
  • The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
  • Each of the Buccaneers’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Julio Jones has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Falcons’ last five home games against the Buccaneers.
  • Peyton Barber has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Buccaneers’ last two road games against the Falcons.
  • Calvin Ridley has scored a touchdown in four of the Falcons’ last five games against NFC South opponents.

Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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