When the Bills and Broncos face off Sunday, viewers might get a sense of déjà vu. Both teams have inaccurate QBs, rely heavily on their multi-headed backfield, and get by on the strength of their defense. The Bills have looked like the better team, but they’ve also benefited from a much easier schedule.
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Though both defenses are good, they have opposite strengths – which heavily impacted the player prop bets recommended, below. The Broncos are the more balance of the two defenses, but they are still notably more effective against the run than the pass. The Bills, on the other hand, have been great against the pass, but have struggled to contain the run. This tendency has been exacerbated recently, After holding three of their first four opponents under 75 rushing yards, the Bills have allowed at least 100 yards on the ground to five of their last six, only stopping the Dolphins in a Week 11 rematch.
Broncos rookie TE Noah Fant could play an outsized role in determining the outcome of this game. Since the Broncos traded away WR Emmanuel Sanders, Fant is tied with WR Courtland Sutton for the most targets on the team, and Fant is close on Sutton’s heals in receptions and yards. Together, the pair accounts for 55% of the team’s targets and 72% of the team’s receiving yards since the trade. Fant has become a crucial part of the Broncos’ offense. But the Bills have been the toughest matchup in the league for a TE. They’ve allowed the fewest receptions (29) and touchdowns (1), and the second-fewest yards per game (29.6). That’s despite having faced many talented TEs who typically have a large role, including Evan Engram, Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, and Delanie Walker. If the Broncos can’t keep Fant going Sunday, they may be in trouble.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Broncos at Bills
Point Spread: Broncos +4
Total Points: 37
Money Line: Bills -190; Broncos +165
Overall: Broncos 3-7; Bills 7-3
ATS: Broncos 6-4; Bills 6-3-1
O/U: Broncos 4-6; Bills 3-7
- Broncos’ RB Phillip Lindsay (foot/wrist) is available. He was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but participated in full Friday.
- Broncos’ TE Jeff Heuerman (knee) is questionable. He was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but participated in full Friday.
Notable Prop Bets
Courtland Sutton to score +325; Phillip Lindsay to rush for over 60.5 yards -112; Brandon Allen to pass for more yards than Josh Allen +119
Cole Beasley to catch more than 37.5 receiving yards -112; Josh Allen to throw over 0.5 interceptions -157
- The Broncos have lost eight of their last nine road games against AFC East opponents.
- The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven road games before a Division game.
- Fourteen of the Broncos’ last 17 games as underdogs have gone under the total points line.
- Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last three games.
- Cole Beasley has scored a touchdown in each of the Bills’ last three home games.
- Phillip Lindsay has scored at least one touchdown in six of the Broncos’ last eight Sunday road games.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for details.