Aaron Jones has been a beast so far this season. He’s the current RB3 in fantasy points per game and RB4 in total points (though with only ten games played). Just imagine if he wasn’t losing opportunities to the Packers other rusher, Jamaal Williams. Williams himself hasn’t been bad either even with his lower usage as he’s the RB28 in points per game, not bad for the “backup” role he plays, although most of his points have come through the passing game. In fact, Jones has scored 11 touchdowns on the ground to Williams’ one, while Williams has five receiving touchdowns to Jones’ three.
Green Bay can’t complain or be criticized for how it’s managing the backfield. The Packers rushers (these two guys and the rest to have logged a snap) are averaging the most fantasy points per game this season. Jones and Williams are the second-best (33.2) one-two RB pair only behind the Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon pair in points per game combined (33.9).
While Jones has put on a dud here and there (30 yards and 3.9 points in Week 9...), he has also shown a tremendous 40-plus-points ceiling (182 yards, four touchdowns in Week 5). He just destroyed Carolina before their bye to the tune of 93 yards and three TDs on 13 carries to finish the day with 27.3 points. Williams hasn’t reached Jones’ levels, but he’s averaging 15.7 points in his last five games, and he has scored at least a touchdown in four of them featuring heavily in the passing game but also rushing for a season-high 104 yards in Week 6.
Fantasy Football Analysis, Green Bay Packers RBs Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams
You don’t sit Aaron Jones in re-draft, season-long leagues. He’s a stud, and he needs to be in your lineup weekly. Williams is a little more risky proposition, but he’s stabilized lately (barring his lousy game against the Panthers, although it was all due to Green Bay leading early and game script reasons) as he’s in the 13-to-18 fantasy points clip with upside for more. That is what the season has told us about them through 10 games. But neither of them have faced as good a defense as the 49ers so far.
San Francisco ranks second in points per game given up to running backs. That alone could scare you, but it has a lot to do with teams not rushing the ball against them (sixth-fewest rushing attempts). In the 849 carries against them, they’ve surrendered an average of 4.45 YPC, the 10th-highest mark in the league. This defense looks better against receiving tailbacks than pure rushers, and that should favor Jones this weekend and cut Williams’ upside a little shorter. Again, I’d start Jones in any situation, but given how the Niners don’t usually lend teams to run and stop the passing game, I’d fade Williams.