It’s all about mixing and matching salaries in DFS. You can’t field a team full of stars and thus you must find the best values around the slate and fade those who come overpriced for the production they will return.
So don’t get fooled by the boldness of the names, and rather look at their games. Sometimes highly coveted wide receivers can put out a dud, while others can go under-the-radar in Sunday’s main slate.
Here are the best and worst values at the position for Week 13 (values from DraftKings).
Week 13 - DFS WR Best Values
Jarvis Landry, CLE (at PIT) — $6,400
While Odell Beckham Jr. had a nice start to the season with his new team, he has been completely out-performed by Jarvis Landry since Week 4. In the Browns last seven games, Landry has finished the weekend with more fantasy points than Beckham six times. At this point, it’s clear who is the most productive player of the two even as Baker Mayfield keeps targeting OBJ a little bit more. Landry enters Week 13 with a salary $300 cheaper than Odell after having another monster game last Sunday against Miami. Landry hauled in 10 receptions for 148 yards and two scores in what has been his best game of the season. His 39.8 DKFP were good to rank him WR2 of the week only behind Chris Godwin (40.40). If the Browns want to make the playoffs they’ll need to make it work, and Landry is in a prime position to lead the team. Pittsburgh has allowed more than 144 yards to receivers in all of its last six games, and conceded six touchdowns in their last five.
Tyler Boyd, CIN (vs NYJ) — $5,500
I have to acknowledge that playing someone from the Bengals—possibly the new Dolphins—isn’t too encouraging. But bear with me. Boyd is the only weapon on Cincinnati’s attack, and even with a rookie quarterback at the helm, Boyd is providing fantasy value if only because he has no competition. If Mixon can keep his last performances up and keeps defenses at least a bit honest, Boyd will keep racking opportunities up on offense. Just this past weekend he came back to his scoring ways by getting inside the paint after receiving five passes for 101 yards. Although he couldn’t amount to anything two weeks ago, Boyd has a realistic floor of around 60 yards, six receptions, 12 DKFP and the upside to score. The Jets limited Oakland’s receivers to 54 yards on a horrid Carr performance, but other than that had conceded 10 touchdowns and a combined 752 receiving yards in their prior four games, allowing 39.4 DKFP per game to WRs on the season.
Week 13 - DFS WR Worst Values
Mike Evans, TB (at JAX) — $6,900
Evans has the fifth-highest salary of the Week 13 slate. He’s been great this season, but things are looking more and more in Chris Godwin’s direction. It’s been three weeks in a row that Evans has been limited to 82 receiving yards and four receptions at most, without finding the end zone. Godwin, on the other hand, has out-targeted Evans in two of the last three games and scored three times in that span. His 40.4 DKFP performance this past Sunday made him the best receiver of the week. Given his price but the volatility of Winston’s passing and the presence of someone as capable as Godwin, I find it hard to trust Evans’ potential ROI. Add in the fact that the Jaguars are playing at an above-average level against WRs (34.3 DKFP per game allowed to the position) and that they have kept two of their last three WR-corps to under 110 yards. I don’t see much upside in this play.
Courtland Sutton, DEN (vs LAC) — $5,800
The Chargers have been very irregular on offense this season and their 4-7 record isn’t very good, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t been able to put the clamps on opposing receivers. They rank second in fantasy points per game allowed to the position only behind New England, and in their last two games, they have allowed an incredible 125 receiving yards combined to full receiver-corps. Denver’s solution at the quarterback position (Brandon Allen) worked for a while against Minnesota but was plain horrid against Buffalo. If that is a sign for things to come, Sutton should be completely erased from the fantasy landscape. This past Sunday he could only catch one pass for 27 yards though he was targeted eight times. Minnesota ranked 30th against WRs, while Buffalo ranked eighth. Again, the Chargers are second. Sutton should bring a high ceiling with him, sure, but his floor is near zero as seen this past weekend. Not worth the risk for such a high price (12th-highest in the slate).
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