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Betting on lightning not striking twice in Saints-Falcons

Can the Falcons stun the Saints a second straight game? I just don’t see it happening.

The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints close out the Thanksgiving holiday with a rematch of a stunning Week 10 upset. The Saints are rolling to the NFC South division title while the Falcons are in the hunt for a top ten draft pick. Week 10 saw the Falcons go into New Orleans and embarrass the Saints. New Orleans can clinch the division with a win, while also mathematically eliminating Atlanta from a wild card berth in the process. There’s some motivation here.

The Saints are a 6.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. The point total is 49, with the Saints listed at -305 on the money line and the Falcons at +260 on the money line. The Saints are 7-4 against the spread and have gone over the point total six times this season. The Falcons are 4-7 ATS and have gone over the point total four times.

Injury report

Saints

OUT: T Terron Armstead (ankle), RB Zach Line (knee), G Andrus Peat (forearm)
Questionable: C Will Clapp (back), WR Deonte Harris (hamstring), CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring)

Falcons

OUT: TE Austin Hooper (knee)
Questionable: S Sharron Neasman (shoulder), WR Julio Jones (shoulder), TE Luke Stocker (back)

Pick against the spread

Divisional matchups are never easy to figure out. We saw that with this rivalry in Week 10. Add in a short week, and it leaves room for plenty of craziness. That being said, I don’t think lightning strikes twice. I see the Saints bouncing back and rolling in this one to secure the division.

The Saints offensive line is dealing with serious injury issues with Andrus Peat and Terron Armstead sidelined. However, they face a Falcons defensive front that is 17th in adjusted line yards and 31st in adjusted sack rate. The injuries are notable, but this is one matchup where I think they can overcome it (we’ll see next week against the 49ers defensive front). I see a final score of something like 31-17.

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