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Too many points not to take the 49ers

The 49ers and Ravens square off in a potential Super Bowl preview. Here’s why I’m taking the points with San Francisco.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo smiles at tight end George Kittle in the game against the Green Bay Packers during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Ravens host the San Francisco 49ers in a Week 13 matchup that could very well be a Super Bowl preview. The 49ers are 10-1 and atop the NFC, while the Ravens are 9-2 and in second in the AFC. Both are all but certain to lock up a playoff berth soon, and this could provide a taste of things to come.

The Ravens are 5.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set at 46.5. The Ravens are favorites on the money line at -240, while the 49ers are +205 underdogs on the money line. This marks the first time a 10-1 team has been an underdog since 2007. That game saw the Green Bay Packers facing fellow 10-1 Dallas as a seven point underdog. The Packers lost 37-27, failing to cover the spread.

Both teams are 6-4-1 against the spread. The 49ers have gone over the point total five times this season, including four of their last five games. The Ravens have gone over seven times, including six of their last nine.

Injury report

49ers: Running back Matt Breida has returned to practice in limited fashion and appears on track to play this weekend. Left tackle Joe Staley was a DNP on Wednesday, but then practiced on Thursday, which bodes well for his chances this weekend. The 49ers also expect to get back kicker Robbie Gould from a quad injury.

Ravens: The team placed center Matt Skura on injured reserve with a knee injury. Losing a center can be a critical issue for any offensive line and is the biggest injury question for either team coming into this one.

Pick against the spread

They say bet the number not the team, but this one is combination of things. The 49ers haven’t been dominant against the spread, but it’s hard to justify laying over a field goal against them against anybody. I get why people would still back the Ravens given how hot they are, but a 5.5 points is too much. Add Baltimore losing their starting center, and regardless of how well Baltimore is playing, I have to take the points.