How do I put this diplomatically… The Steelers have the softest three wins imaginable, and they have more in common with Washington and the Falcons (both 1-7) than the Ravens and Colts (both 5-2). The Steelers beat the winless Bengals and the winless Dolphins, and they were losing to the latter throughout the first half. Their third win came against the Chargers. In that game, the Steelers went up 14-0 after a fumble-six and a 40-yard drive started by an interception – from that point on, they were outscored 17-10. Pittsburgh has lost to all four teams they’ve faced that are on track to make the playoffs.

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The Steelers defense has been mostly good, ranking ninth in DVOA, 10^th in yards allowed, and 13^th in points allowed. But the offense has not held up after they lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 – they’re fifth-to-last in total yards.

The Colts, on the other hand, have been winning on the strength of their offense. They boast one of the best offensive lines in the league, and they’re ninth in offensive DVOA. It’ll be strength-against-strength, and weakness-against weakness as the Colts try to maintain their lead in the AFC South, and the Steelers try to stay within striking distance of the playoffs.

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Colts at Steelers

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Steelers +1
Total Points: 42.5
Money Line: Steelers +102; Colts -114

Records

Overall: Colts 5-2; Steelers 3-4
ATS: Colts 4-2-1; Steelers 4-3
O/U: Colts 4-3; Steelers 2-5

Notable Prop Bets

Colts:

Alternate point spread Colts -5 +155; Parlay Colts money line and over +240

Steelers:

Total touchdowns (both teams combined) over 4.5 -112; Steelers to score fewer than 2.5 TDs -180

Betting Trends

• The Steelers have won each of their last five games against the Colts.
• The Colts have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five day games following a home win.
• Four of the Colts’ last five road games have gone under the total points line.
• T.Y. Hilton has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Colts’ last three road day games.
• James Connor has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Steelers’ last four games.
• Juju Smith-Schuster has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Steelers’ last five day games against AFC opponents.

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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for details.