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Quarterbacks making starting debut are solid against the spread

We get a pair of new starters in Week 9. This marks the ninth and tenth times we’ll see this, and there is an ATS stat of note.

By David Fucillo
Brandon Allen of the Denver Broncos on the sidelines in the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 27, 2019 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Every week, we’re all looking for something that might give us a modest edge in our attempts to win a few bucks betting on the NFL. A strong sports bettor is unlikely to clear 60 percent success regularly, so every little edge counts.

ESPN’s Ben Fawkes offered up an interesting stat regarding quarterbacks making their first career starts. This season, NFL quarterbacks making their first career start are 8-0 against the spread and 4-3-1 straight up. Week 9 brings two such starts, with Brandon Allen starting for Denver in place of Joe Flacco and Dwayne Haskins starting for Washington in place of Case Keenum.

The Broncos placed Flacco on injured reserve due to a neck injury. Allen is making not only his first career start, but his first career appearance in a regular season game since being draft in 2016. Denver is a four-point home underdog against the Cleveland Browns.

Haskins has made two relief appearances in this his rookie season, and depending on how he looks today, could permanently replace Keenum — who is dealing with a concussion. Washington is an 11-point road underdog against the Buffalo Bills.

Eight games is a very small sample size, so you should certainly consider more in your approach. But it’s an interesting number if you’re on the fence about which way to go.

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