The Bucs are out of the playoff picture, but still can score with some of the best teams in the league. Tampa is third in points scored this season after putting up 35 against the Falcons. Though the Bucs are just 23rd in passing DVOA, they have the 10th-highest yards per pass attempt on the year. Sacks and turnovers have been this offense’s undoing time and time again. Tampa has been sacked 11th-most frequently, and have by far the highest interception rate in the league. Their 4.6% rate is 21% higher than the second-worst team, the Jets. Defensively, the Bucs have the top rated rush unit by DVOA, but just the 25th rated pass unit.
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Jacksonville is coming off of a convincing 20-42 defeat at the hands of the Tennessee Titans. That makes the Jags winless since returning Nick Foles to the field, scoring a total of 33 points in two games. The team is averaging the same amount off points per drive over that span (1.49) than they did with Gardner Minshew as the starter, indicating that the quarterback change may not have been as valuable as originally expected. Defensively, Jacksonville is still tough against the pass, coming in 13th in DVOA, but they are dead last against the run by DVOA.
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Bucs at Jaguars
Point Spread: Bucs +1
Total Points: 48.5
Money Line: Jaguars -124; Bucs +102
Overall 2019: Bucs 4-7; Jaguars 4-7
ATS 2019: Bucs 3-8; Jaguars 5-6
O/U 2019: Bucs 9-2; Jaguars 6-4-1
Bucs: LB Anthony Nelson (hamstring) out, WR Scotty Miller (hamstring) out, LB Carl Nassib (illness) questionable
Jaguars: S Ronnie Harrison (concussion) out, TE Seth DeValve (oblique) out, LB Myles Jack (knee) questionable
Notable Prop Bets
Total Bucs Touchdowns - Over 2.5 -121, Under 2.5 -109
Total Jaguars Points - Over 23.5 -129, Under 23.5 +100
Total Game Touchdowns - Over 5.5 +104, Under 5.5 -141
First Team to Score - Bucs -110, Jaguars -122
- The Jaguars have lost each of their last seven games against NFC South opponents.
- The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games against NFC opponents.
- Each of the Buccaneers’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for details.