If you’re a DFS player, you know that a successful lineup has to have a solid combination of big-name star power players that are known commodities with a few high-upside players that provide a little more bang for your buck.
If you pay up for a big name in your daily fantasy lineup, you definitely cannot afford for that player to put up a dud of a game in your lineup.
So here are the running backs that will likely provide some of the best and worst value for Week 10. (Values from DraftKings).
BEST: Mark Ingram (BAL) - $7,100
Ingram has everything you want in finding value at the running back position: no competition for carries at his position, a favorable matchup against the 2nd-worst rush defense in the NFL, and a game script that will likely involve bleeding out the clock against winless Cincinnati Bengals. Even after the Ravens ran over the New England Patriots, Ingram is still a whopping $3,400 cheaper than the most expensive running back available this week for absolutely incredible value.
WORST: Latavius Murray (NO) - $7,300
Latavius Murray filled in admirably for the New Orleans Saints while Alvin Kamara missed the past two weeks, including rushing for over 100 yards and scoring two touchdowns in each of the past two games. However, all signs indicate Kamara returns when the New Orleans Saints host the rival Atlanta Falcons, so Murray likely returns to a complimentary role for the Saints. Murray’s performance the past two weeks have probably increased his timeshare in the backfield with Kamara, but he’s still going to cede the majority of touches to Kamara in this offense. Considering you could get someone like Ingram, the primary running back in his offense, for $200 cheaper, Murray just doesn’t have any value this week.
BEST: Marlon Mack (IND) - $7,000
The Indianapolis Colts are down to their third quarterback from who they thought was going to be their quarterback to start 2019 after Jacoby Brissett became the starter when Andrew Luck retired. The Miami Dolphins might have won their first game of the season last week against the New York Jets, but make no mistake about it: they still want to lose games. If the Colts want to win this game, they will likely need to lean on Marlon Mack and the running game against the NFL’s second-worst rush defense.
WORST: David Johnson (ARI) - $5,000
From one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, to one of the NFL’s best, David Johnson and the Arizona Cardinals face the NFL’s second-best rush defenses in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Aside from just the matchup, Johnson also has added competition in the backfield for touches. When Johnson got hurt, Chase Edmonds rushed for 126 yards and 3 touchdowns two weeks ago. When Edmonds got hurt, Kenyan Drake totaled 152 yards and a touchdown last week. Now both will be back with Johnson, and there’s still no guarantee Johnson himself suits up this week. Even if he does, it’s possible the Cardinals lighten his load to keep him healthy and operate with a running back by committee with DJ, Edmonds and Drake moving forward.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is cdunnz) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.