It’s all about mixing and matching salaries in DFS. You can’t field a team full of stars and thus you must find the best values around the slate and fade those who come overpriced for the production they will return.
So don’t get fooled by the boldness of the names, and rather look at their games. Sometimes highly coveted tight ends can put out a dud, while others can go under-the-radar in Sunday’s main slate.
Here are the best and worst values at the position for Week 10 (values from DraftKings).
Week 10 - DFS TE Best Values
Vance McDonald, PIT (vs LAR) — $3,800
I’m not going to lie here: 2019 McDonald is far from 2018 McDonald. As clear as water. Even with that, the tight end has regained the leading role at the position after a couple of weeks before the bye when Nick Vannett seemed to have the upper hand over him. While McDonald is averaging just 8.2 DKFP per game, this past weekend he came back to his old self by posting 14 DKFP in a game in which he hauled in five of his seven targets for 30 yards and a touchdown (third this season). He was targeted four times inside the 20-yard line, which also bodes well for his future upside. Only JuJu Smith-Schuster has out-targeted McDonald since Mason Rudolph came back, so expect him to keep having as many opportunities as he can get. McDonald has had his best games against defenses ranked 25th or worst against the position, and enters Week 10 facing a Rams unit that currently ranks 21st and is allowing 13.5 DKFP per game to opposing TEs. In fact, Los Angeles is on a six-game streak in which they have allowed a touchdown or 78-plus receiving yards to the position.
Greg Olsen, CAR (at GB) — $3,600
Olsen started the season with 53.1 DKFP in three games, but from Week 4 to Week 9 he has only amassed 22 combined. Every time he’s been targeted more than four times, though, he has finished the game with a minimum of 7.0 fantasy points and shown a ceiling of up to 25.5, and every time he logged three or more receptions for 36 or more yards (even reaching 110 yards in Week 2). While the Niners made it tough for him to rack up numbers in Week 8 (2/2/13 for 3.3 points), he regressed to his true talent level a bit this past weekend against Tennessee catching three of his five targets for 40 yards and a score of 7 DKFP. That is nothing out of this world, right, but the targets were up from his last outing and if they keep rising then Olsen will be in a position to put up better scores. This week he goes after a bad defense against tight ends in fantasy points allowed per game. Green Bay is giving up the sixth-most in the league at 14.9 per contest and in their last three matches opposing tight ends have combined for four TDs, 22 receptions, and 319 yards. With the Panthers as five-point underdogs, Olsen is primed to be targeted above average and have a season-high game.
Week 10 - DFS TE Worst Values
Mark Andrews, BAL (at CIN) — $5,200
It is hard to go against the TE6 of the season, but Andrews is valued by DraftKings as a tier-one player this week while he’s not at that level—much less as of late. Andrews (same as Baltimore as a whole, truth be told) became a star during the first couple of weeks of the year but he has been losing power on a steady basis. His back-to-back 100-yard, TD, 28-DKFP performances to kick the season off are the two games making his averages look way better than they should. His last two games paint the opposite picture. I can concede that New England’s defense was always going to be hard to beat (he caught two passes for 21 yards on three targets), but against the sixth-worst defense against TEs (Seattle Seahawks) in Week 7 Andrews could only catch two of eight targets for 39 yards. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4 and has been targeted inside the 10-yard line just once in his last four games. The Bengals have the fourth-best defense against the position, limited the Rams to 23 yards or three receptions last weekend, and prior to that they completely suffocated Jacksonville leaving them at all-zeroes in every box score column.
Jimmy Graham, GB (vs CAR) — $4,000
Graham has been touchdown-dependent all season long. If it wasn’t for his three scores in three separate games, he would only have two games of 10-plus fantasy points in the nine he’s played. Also, he scored two of those three TDs against the fourth- and fifth-worst defenses against the position. There is no doubt Graham is the TE1 in Green Bay’s offense, but with Davante Adams back and basically every other receiver producing better numbers than Graham this season it is hard to believe the tight end will amount to much going forward. His last two games have finished at 5 and 5.7 points and he hasn’t topped 20 yards in either of them while not being targeted once inside the 20-yard line. Green Bay might find a favorable game script against Carolina and just turn to the ground game early, limiting even more the chances of Graham—not that they were good to start with, as Carolina ranks sixth in points allowed to the TE with a ridiculously low 9.2 per game, and comes from limiting the Titans to 18 yards on three grabs in Week 9.
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