The Cardinals have suffered a setback since leveling out their record at 3-3-1. The team has lost two straight games, albeit to two of the best teams in football, and will need to beat Tampa if they want to stay alive for a wild card spot. Arizona has dramatically slowed their pace of play:
#Cardinals slowing pace & play volume:— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) November 1, 2019
Plays per game: 69.7
No-huddle rate: 43%
Seconds per snap: 24.3
Plays per game: 65.3
No-huddle rate: 29%
Seconds per snap: 26.0
Plays per game: 53.3
No-huddle rate: 21%
Seconds per snap: 29.0
From a strategical point of view, this makes sense for them. Teams with less talent should look to slow the game down in an effort to run less plays, increasing the variance in the outcome, and giving them a better chance to win. And Arizona certainly has less talent. They rank 28th in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, and just 16th offensively. In fact, the most productive part of their offense so far has been the run game, which ranks third by DVOA despite a rotation of backs that has included David Johnson, Chase Edmonds, and Kenyan Drake after being traded from Miami. Expect the Cards to lean on that run game going forward.
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The Bucs came close to upsetting the Seahawks in Week 9, but Russell Wilson proved to be too much for a flailing defense ranked 26th in DVOA against the pass. They have lost four games in a row. The Bucs are not much better on offense, ranking 20th in DVOA. With that said, Jameis Winston has certainly been able to lead an explosive passing attack capable of big games at any time. Their issue has been sacks. Tampa’s 8.9% sack rate allowed is the sixth-worst in the NFL. Winston has also struggled with turnovers. He is tied with Baker Mayfield for the most interceptions in the NFL, and has also fumbled nine times. If Winston wants to secure a contract extension and continue to be the starter for this team going forward, he will have to clean up his performance.
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Cardinals at Bucs
Point Spread: Cardinals +4.5
Total Points: 52.5
Money Line: Bucs -215; Cardinals +185
Overall 2019: Cardinals 3-5-1; Bucs 2-6
ATS 2019: Cardinals 6-3; Bucs 2-6
O/U 2019: Cardinals 5-4; Bucs 6-2
Cardinals: RB Chase Edmonds (hamstring) out, CB Tramaine Brock (hamstring) out
Bucs: LB Carl Nassib (groin) out, LB Anthony Nelson (hamstring) out
Notable Prop Bets
Cardinals Total Touchdowns - Over 2.5 -108, Under 2.5 -124
Cardinals to Score First and Win - Yes +310, No -420
Bucs Total Points - Over 27.5 -118, Under 27.5 -109
First Team to Score 25 Points - Cardinals +205, Bucs -120, Tie +310
- The Cardinals have lost each of their last seven road games against NFC South opponents.
- The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites before a Division game.
- Each of the Buccaneers’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Mike Evans has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Buccaneers’ last nine games against NFC West opponents.
- Larry Fitzgerald has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Cardinals’ last four games against the Buccaneers.
- Cameron Brate has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Buccaneers’ last four games as favorites against NFC West opponents.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for details.