It took nine weeks, but the Dolphins finally have a win. In an absolute slop-fest which featured two safeties, no defense, but somehow just 44 total points, Miami managed to prevail over the equally lowly Jets. But don’t worry, a major playoff run isn’t coming for this team anytime soon. They are still dead last in Football Outsiders offensive DVOA, and 31st in defensive DVOA. The Dolphins have scored more than 20 points just twice this year. They are definitely better with Ryan Fitzpatrick running the show. Miami is averaging 1.8 more yards per pass attempt, and an 11.3% higher success rate on passes with Fitzpatrick on the field.
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The Colts are coming off of a brutal loss to the Steelers. They lost quarterback Jacoby Brissett in the first quarter, but were able to battle Pittsburgh down to the wire. Unfortunately, they missed a field goal to win at the end of the contest, and ended up losing. Indy is still 5-3 and sports a positive point differential, a testament to just how talented they are in the wake of Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement. The Colts have the 11th-best pass defense by DVOA, and have a top-10 offense. This is way better than they were expected to perform post-Luck.
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Dolphins at Colts
Point Spread: Dolphins +10
Total Points: 44
Money Line: Colts -455; Dolphins +380
Overall 2019: Dolphins 1-7; Colts 5-3
ATS 2019: Dolphins 4-4; Colts 4-3-1
O/U 2019: Dolphins 3-5; Colts 5-3
Dolphins: S Reshad Jones (chest) out, WR Preston Williams (knee) out, OL Daniel Kilgore (knee) questionable
Colts: WR T.Y. Hilton (calf) out, WR Parris Campbel (hand) out, QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) questionable
Notable Prop Bets
Dolphins Total Touchdowns - Over 1.5 -162, Under 1.5 +123
Colts Total Points - Over 26.5 -125, Under 26.5 -104
Total Game Touchdowns - Over 4.5 -139, Under 4.5 +102
First Team to Score - Dolphins +155, Colts -215
- The Dolphins have lost each of their last 10 road games.
- The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
- Fifteen of the Colts’ last 21 home games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for details.