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Patrick Mahomes returning is the reason to pick the Chiefs over the Titans in Week 10

Patrick Mahomes appears to be on the verge of returning to the Chiefs starting lineup. We break down the implications for our Week 10 pick against the spread for Chiefs-Titans.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs talks with head coach Andy Reid before the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Arrowhead Stadium on November 03, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

UPDATE: Mahomes is starting, bet away!

The Kansas City Chiefs have impressed with Matt Moore as quarterback in recent weeks, but everyone realizes getting Patrick Mahomes back will be a huge boost. Andy Reid is an offensive mastermind, but the jump from Moore to Mahomes is substantial. I realize this is not breaking news.

The Chiefs travel to face the Tennessee Titans in Week 10 and sportsbooks are operating under the assumption Mahomes will play for the first time since dislocating his knee cap. Most every sportsbook, including DraftKings, has installed Kansas City at six or 6.5 points. Confirmation could bump the line a little bit, but you’re looking at something in the touchdown range.

This is actually a pretty simple wager. Sportsbooks are factoring in Mahomes, but there would appear to be a modest discount if you want to bet on the Chiefs. Tennessee is not a bad team, but they are not a particularly good team. Their defense ranks 20th against the pass in efficiency as compared to their third ranked run defense. The Chiefs rank third in net yards per play, while the Titans are 20th.

If you think Mahomes will play in this game, hop on this line before it gets up to a full touchdown. If you don’t think Mahomes will play in this game, it’s probably best to stay away from it as opposed to betting the Titans. Moore has been solid, and Ryan Tannehill seems like he could be due for a bad game. I wouldn’t bet on “Tannehill’s due for a bad game,” so this really is a lay it or don’t play it game with the Chiefs.

I’m inclined to jump on the Chiefs at -6.5 given the positive news around Mahomes. We’ll see if it bites me in the butt.

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