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What to do with Tom Brady in Week 13 fantasy football

Brady’s been among the league’s worst fantasy options the past seven weeks. Is a tempting matchup enough reason to believe he’ll bounce back this Sunday?

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady throws a pass during the second half against the Dallas Cowboys at Gillette Stadium. Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

If you’ve owned Tom Brady in fantasy this season, there’s a semi-decent chance you don’t anymore. Even at age 42, that’s kind of an insane thing to think about. Brady is the NFL’s all-time leader in so many statistical categories that I’d rather not list them all, but, suffice to say, he’s not someone who isn’t very deserving of a long leash. However, to be blunt, the recent outputs have been disgusting. Going back to the beginning of Week 6, there have been 23 quarterbacks who have appeared in six or more games. Of these 23 gentlemen, Brady has posted the third-lowest aDOT (7.3 yards), the second-lowest rate of fantasy points per drop back (0.34) and has thrown for the fewest amount of touchdowns. It’s been bleak.

However, if there’s a setting where I’d feel most comfortable saying Brady bounces back, it’s at an indoor stadium in Houston. The Texans have been one of the league’s most generous teams when it comes to QBs in 2019. Houston’s banged up secondary has allowed five different quarterbacks to surpass the 300-yard plateau this season, while they’ve also surrendered three or more touchdown passes to five of the last seven pivots they’ve come across. That last point is crucial to note. Because of the Texans’ relatively stout rushing defense, opponents have generally found it easier to get into the end zone through the air. In fact, 78.6% of the touchdowns scored on Houston have been of the passing variety.

Fantasy Football Analysis, New England Patriots QB Tom Brady

There are clearly a few knocks working against Brady’s viability in Week 13. He’s been below-average in his past six starts, his weapons at wide receiver and tight end aren’t what they used to be, and he’s dealing with a minor elbow injury. Still, it’s a rare day that I don’t trust a quarterback of Brady’s pedigree against a vulnerable Texans defense. For me, the tie-breaker comes down to volume. Despite his struggles, Brady’s thrown the ball a whopping 42.0 times per game since Week 6. If he comes close to that number on Sunday Night Football, he’ll bring back value.

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