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Laying a ton of points against a banged up Jets team

16.5 points is a sizable spread to cover, but this Jets team is crushed by injuries. So yes, I’m going to lay the points.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson passes the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the fourth quarter at New Era Field.  Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens square off to open Week 15 with the final Thursday Night Football game of the season. These are two teams going in opposite directions, with the Ravens looking to secure the top seed in the AFC playoff picture and the Jets in the hunt for a top ten draft pick.

The Jets are dealing with a huge number of injuries, and they’re facing a Ravens team that is on fire with nine straight wins. The DraftKings Sportsbook point spread opened at 14.5, but it has climbed to 16.5 as of game day. The point total sits at 44.5. The Ravens are -910 on the money line, while the Jets are +700. That being said, it’s worth noting that while the Jets are 5-8 against the spread this season, the Ravens are only 7-5-1 ATS.

Injury report

This explains a lot about this line movement. Lamar Jackson was listed as limited on the team’s Monday and Tuesday practice participation reports due to a quad injury. He was listed as a full participant on Wednesday and given a questionable designation. The line movement over the past 24 hours would suggest bettors were waiting for confirmation of Jackson’s status and that has moved the line.

The Jets have won four of their last five, but they’re the walking wounded right now. They have 14 players on their injury report and eight of them are doubtful or out. With another six players questionable, they will fill out their inactives with all injured players and still not have a fully healthy roster.

Pick against the spread

Double digit points is always tough, and while the climb to 16.5 is big, it still leaves you below a higher slightly magic number of 17. The backdoor cover is a very real possibility. The public is backing the Ravens, but to not nearly as large a degree as I might have initially expected. I’m inlined to lay the points in this one. Although the Jets have won four of five, only the winner over the Raiders was against a remotely decent opponent. And given how extensive their injury report is, I don’t see how they keep up with the Ravens.

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