The Patriots come into this game having lost two games in a row and are 7-6 against the spread as favorites and 4-3 as road favorites. The Bengals are 5-6 against the spread as underdogs and 1-3 as home underdogs.
People will blame the refs for the Patriots lately loss against the Chiefs and they certainly have a case. However, the Patriots offensive line has been a major problem protecting Tom Brady, which has trickled down to a lack of offense. It’s a big reason why Brady has thrown for 216 yards or less in three of his last four games. Luckily for him, the Bengals don’t present much of a pass rush, so he should have a clearer pocket to throw to Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu and James White. The Patriots should bounce back in a big way against this Bengals defense that struggles against the pass, the run and have only 21 sacks on the season, which is the second-lowest mark in the league.
Give Andy Dalton some credit, he has given some life to this Bengals offense, who are averaging 20.5 points over their last two games since he was brought back into the starting role. In those games, he’s averaging 252 passing yards with a 58.7% completion rate and a a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. Joe Mixon certainly hasn’t been upset with the change, as he’s drawn eight targets while carrying the ball 42 times for 190 yards and two touchdowns since the change was made. The Patriots run defense has been very shaky as of late and Mixon as in the bell-cow role will still be active regardless of the score. The Patriots have allowed over 100 rushing in two of their last five games and averaging 85.6 rushing in that same span. As the spread indicates, this will be a tough game for the Bengals to pull off a major upset but the Bengals can run Mixon to try and keep this game competitive.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Point Spread: Patriots -8.5
Total Points: 40.5
Money Line: Patriots -400; Bengals +310
Overall 2019: Patriots 10-3; Bengals 1-12
ATS 2019: Patriots 7-6; Bengals 5-8
O/U 2019: Patriots 4-9; Bengals 4-9
- Questionable: LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (knee), DT Byron Cowart (concussion), WR Julian Edelman (knee, shoulder), C Ted Karras (knee), CB Jason McCourty (groin), WR Mohamed Sanu (ankle), DT Danny Shelton (shoulder)
- Out: WR A.J. Green (ankle), DT Renell Wren (hip)
- Questionable: CB Darqueze Dennard (illness)
Notable prop bets
- Total Touchdowns - Over 2.5 -195, Under 2.5 +143
- First to 30 Points +150
- Total Points - Over 15.5 -115, Under 15.5 -113
- John Ross Receiving yards - Over 30.5 -112, Under 30.5 -112
- The Bengals have lost 14 of their last 15 games.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last five road games against teams that held a losing record.
- Seven of the Bengals’ last eight home games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for details.