Running back production often correlates with a good lead. That lead helps defenses predict with more accuracy what their opponent’s will do, which is usually pass the ball to make up ground. A quarterback dropping back to pass consistently gives defenses their best shot at sacks, fumbles, interceptions and defensive touchdowns. We can take this knowledge and use it to our advantage in our daily fantasy lineups by stacking running backs with their defenses.
Below we look at the best running back-D/ST stacks going in the main slate for Week 15.
Carson will likely be chalk this week, as Rashaad Penny is done for the season and the Panthers have rolled over for opposing running backs for most of the season. And when I say rolled over, I mean rolled over, as they’ve given up a league high 21 rushing touchdowns with the next highest being 14 allowed.
The Panthers have been especially poor at defending running backs of late, so there’s nothing going for their defensive unit coming into this game. Seattle’s defense hasn’t been that great either but this game still sets up well for them, as they should have a lead and Kyle Allen has been extra turnover prone of late. He has 15 turnovers over his last seven games and eight over his last three. His offensive pieces around him are good and will put up stats but he’s given up double-digit D/ST points in three of his last four games to the Falcons twice and Washington the other time.
Raheem Mostert/49ers vs. Falcons
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan gave Mostert and his fantasy backers a confidence boost when he told the San Francisco Chronicle that ”Raheem’s earned it over these last few weeks. We keep trying to balance it out, but what Raheem has done these last few weeks and has continued to do, we need to give him more opportunities.” That’s enough for me after he rushed 35 times for 260 yards and three touchdowns and caught 5-of-7 targets for 70 yards and another touchdown over the last three weeks.
Mostert will face a Falcons defense that has been middling against running backs and who the 49ers are favored by -10.5 points against. Last week was the opposite of what the 49ers defense usually does, as Drew Brees went crazy for six touchdowns, but I expect the 49ers to get back on track at home. The Falcons have given up 16 sacks in their last three games, all at home, and now they travels to San Francisco to take on Nick Bosa and their ferocious defensive line.
Jacobs MRI on his shoulder came back with good news, so he’ll get shot up with pain killers and go all out for that less than 1 percent chance the Raiders make the playoffs if they win out. His fantasy backers will appreciate it at least, especially against a Jaguars defense that has been ethered by running backs this season. Oakland is favored by almost a touchdown in Oakland, where they play their best and the Jaguars allow the second-most fantasy points to running backs.
The real test will be for the Raiders, who do have a poor defense, but this game should flow to their advantage. Gardner Minshew might be better than Nick Foles but he hasn’t done much of late and he’ll be without D.J. Chark. When stacking runners and defenses, you sometimes have to hold your nose on the defense and trust the likely game script to raise their fantasy ceiling.
I am an avid fan and user (my username is cogresha) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.