Welcome back to Week 15! We are in the home stretch of the season, with playoff spots to be won and lost on the real and virtual gridiron. Unlike last week, where it felt like scoring was lacking, there should be plenty of shootouts to look forward to in Week 15. Currently, six games have a total of 47 points or higher.
The concept behind stacking a QB with his WR is simple; both players benefit from each completion, doubling the benefit of that play for your fantasy lineup. As Adam Levitan pointed out, 79 percent of the lineups that won DraftKings’ Fantasy Football Millionaire contests used a QB stack in their lineup. With the significance of stacking in mind, this article aims to highlight the best stacking options for Sunday’s main slate.
5. Deshaun Watson ($6,800)/Will Fuller ($5,600), Texans at Titans
4. Ryan Tannehill ($6,500)/A.J. Brown ($6,000), Titans vs. Texans
The Texans and Titans game should provide for us one of the bigger shootouts of the week, and that means we can safely target both sides of the game in stacks. DraftKings Sportsbook has the current total at 51 points, which is not only the highest listed total, but also two points higher than the next-closest total.
Neither of these pass defenses offer much resistance to opposing offenses. The Texans and Titans rank 27th and 23rd respectively in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and are both inside of the top half of the league in adjusted yards per pass attempt allowed. The Texans are especially bad, ranking ahead of only the Miami Dolphins in pressure rate.
For the Texans, Watson has been an absolute stud, cracking the 28 DKFP threshold in each of the past two weeks. The receiver he correlates with best is not DeAndre Hopkins as you may expect, but Fuller. According to FantasyLabs, Watson correlates with Fuller with coefficient 0.63, compared to just 0.20 for Hopkins. Fuller missed last game with a hamstring injury, but expects to suit up this week despite being listed as questionable.
In a wild turn of events, Tannehill has been the league’s best passer since claiming the starting job over Marcus Mariota. He is currently averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt, a full 1.2 yards more than the next-closest quarterback (Matthew Stafford). He is also trumped by only Lamar Jackson in touchdown rate. Brown has seen 20% of targets from Tannehill this season, and put up a monster 5/153/2 line in Week 14.
Murray is expected to be a popular cash game option this week, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t also be considered in tournaments. The Browns have had a solid pass defense for much of the year, ranking 13th in DVOA, but have struggled greatly since losing Myles Garrett for the season to suspension. They are allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt with Garrett off the field, which would tie with Cincinnati for third-worst on the year.
Kirk has been the go-to wideout for Murray this year. He has accounted for 24% of team targets, and 31% of team air yards this season. Kirk has seen at least nine targets in three of his last four games. Murray also carries some stand-alone value as a runner. He has 448 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Goff has not had a great season, but that should all but guarantee that he comes in with some low ownership this weekend, perfect for taking down a tournament. He also appears to be playing better of late, going for over 700 yards passing with four touchdowns the past two weeks. The Cowboys are 24th in pass DVOA, and this game has a 48.5 point total with the Rams favored by one.
Wood has been the preferred target for Goff since returning from a personal absence earlier this year. He has a 32% target share over the past three weeks, 10% higher than the next-closest player (Tyler Higbee), and 14% higher than the next-closest wide receiver (Cooper Kupp). Woods caught his first touchdown pass of the season last week, and there should be more to come. It is also worth noting that he remains at a bargain price after playing in a primetime game last Sunday night.
1. Eli(te) Manning ($5,200)/Darius Slayton ($4,700), Giants vs. Dolphins
It sounds gross, but Manning to Slayton should provide the best combination of price, upside, and ownership on the week. Daniel Jones is still dealing with an ankle sprain, giving Manning the chance for one final hurrah at home in front of the Giants faithful. It’s a great spot, as Miami is the bottom team in the league in pass defense DVOA, and allows the third-most adjusted net yards per pass attempt in the NFL.
Slayton has come into his own as only a rookie, despite being just a fifth round pick out of Auburn. Since Week 10 he has accounted for 27% of the targets and 40% of the air yards on the team. His 0.69 Weighted Opportunity Rating over that time frame trails only Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins. Despite this, Slayton is the 37th-highest priced wideout on DraftKings.
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