It’s time to check out the early Week 16 NFL lines to see what games we should be mining for fantasy points. We need big over/unders and hopefully close spreads, but we’ll take the top totals if we can’t have both. These games should be able to push individual players toward their statistical upside, which is always what we are looking for in DFS.
Houston Texans (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game is by far the best game for DFSing this week. It has the highest over/under and a near pick ‘em point spread. Both defenses are bad against the pass and both teams have good fantasy quarterbacks. The Buccaneers have a top run defense as well, which helps push teams to pass more against them.
The Bucs are down their two 1,000 yard receivers with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, but Jameis Winston keeps putting up big numbers without them and that means cheaper DFS plays at receiver, with Breshad Perriman poised for another high usage game.
Will Fuller survived Week 15, so should help DeShaun Watson put together a strong game in Tampa Bay and if it’s as close as the line says, we are in for plenty of DeAndre Hopkins and non DeAndre Hopkins’ fantasy points.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10)
The Seahawks are favored by 10 points, so we can’t expect they will need to throw often, but Russell Wilson is so efficient, that he doesn’t need to throw that often to put up good fantasy points for himself and his receivers. Against the Panthers in Week 15, he only threw the ball 26 times, but he helped Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf to useful fantasy days, himself included.
Arizona will need Kyler Murray to do more than he had to this week, as Kenyan Drake rushed for four touchdowns while the Cardinals Moss’d the Browns. Seattle’s defense remains poor overall and despite Arizona’s spotty offense, it is good for fantasy and can give you games like Drake’s.
Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Ravens only home loss came against the Browns early in the season and they will look for a little revenge to go along with clinching the AFC’s top seed. This likely won’t be a game we can count on the Browns to put up many fantasy points but it sets up well for a Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Mark Ingram affair. The Ravens have the best offense in the league and need this win to secure a bye and a de facto Week 17 bye as well. They will put up fantasy points for your championship game and in DFS.
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
The over/under for this game isn’t sky high but it is the fourth-highest of the weekend and both teams are in must-win mode, as they are tied atop their division. If the weather works out, there’s a good chance this game hits the over, as both defenses have been poor of late.
The Eagles pass defense couldn’t stop Washington and Dwayne Haskins for much of the game and Dallas’ defense is especially bad on the road. This game sets up well for both passing offenses and should be one to target in DFS.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-1)
We have two bad teams with bad defenses taking each other on in Miami, which should give us some value in daily fantasy. The 46 point total isn’t that high, but with a 1-point spread and poor defenses, there’s a good chance these two push the boundary.
Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t a great quarterback but he lets his receivers make plays, which is good for daily fantasy and good against a poor Bengals defense. The Dolphins have a worse defense, which is good, because the Bengals have a worse quarterback.
And if you’ve been jonesing to use Joe Mixon now that he’s putting up fantasy points with regularity, lo and behold, you get a chance this week.