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Taking the points in Week 15 against a banged-up Saints defense

The Saints will be short-handed on defense while the Colts are dealing with a couple big question marks. Here’s why I’m taking the points.

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett of the Indianapolis Colts hands the ball off to running back Marlon Mack against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at Arrowhead Stadium on October 6, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images

The New Orleans Saints host the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football to wrap up the Week 15 schedule. The 10-3 Saints have locked up the NFC South, but a win will keep them in the thick of the race for a first round bye in the NFC. The 6-7 Colts need a win to maintain their faint wild card chances in the AFC.

The Saints are nine-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set at 46.5. The line opened at eight, and climbed to 9.5 before settling at nine. The Saints are 8-5 against the spread and have gone over the point total seven times this season. The Colts are 6-5-2 ATS and have gone over the point total eight times this season.

Injury report

The Colts have a couple big questions heading into Monday. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is listed as questionable and his status won’t be known until closer to game time. He seems unlikely to play after limited work, but it would not be shocking to see him out there. Cornerback Pierre Desir is also questionable, but he got in a full workout by Saturday, which suggests he is on track to play. The Colts will also be without starting cornerback Kenny Moore, which creates big issues against the Saints dynamic passing attack.

The Saints have no questionable players, but have three starters ruled out. They will be without guard Andrus Peat, linebacker Kiko Alonso, and safety Vonn Bell. Earlier in the week, they also placed defensive end Marcus Davenport and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins on injured reserve.

Pick against the spread

The Saints are the superior team, but they are also incredibly banged up. Losing Davenport, Rankins, Bell, and Alonso are a huge boost for the Colts offense. I’d like to see T.Y. Hilton out there for Indianapolis, but even without him, I think the Colts offense can get enough going to at least stay inside the number. This will be a game where Jacoby Brissett and Marlon Mack stand out.

Or, the Saints win by three touchdowns and I shake my head in regret.

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