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Point spread, total, money line, injury report and more for Bills-Patriots in Week 16

A fight for the AFC East title in New England. Which defense will prove to be the best? We break down notable odds, including the point spread, trends, and ATS history.

New England Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore breaks up a pass intended fro Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd during the second half at Paul Brown Stadium. David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Saturday’s slate should be a good mix of games. We start off with a potentially high-scoring bout in the South, then head to the Northeast to witness one of the lowest-scoring battles of the week. The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots last met in September, scoring 26 total points. That’s well below the given 38 points for this week’s matchup, which is the lowest of any game in Week 16. It’s obvious that each team’s strength is the defense, as they rank first and second in points allowed per game in the league. With the AFC East title on the line, both coaches will undoubtedly bring their A-games.

Of his 14 appearances this season, Tom Brady (DFS salary $5,200) has only thrown multiple touchdowns in half. Last week, the offense seemed to solve some of its efficiency issues, registering three touchdowns (two from Brady’s arm). Keep in mind, they had the pleasure of facing the league’s worst team in the Bengals. A banged-up Julian Edelman ($6,400) had his lowest stat line of the season with two catches for nine yards. Brady has seemingly built some chemistry with rookie N’Keal Harry ($4,000), but the Edelman connection will need to be in full effect if the Patriots hope to make yet another deep postseason run.

For the Bills, Josh Allen ($5,300) found the endzone with his arm and legs in a single game for the sixth time this season, last week’s coming on Sunday night against the Steelers. The win clinched a playoff berth for the Bills, marking the franchise’s first ten-win season since 1999. With an underdog victory this week, Buffalo would be one step closer to its first AFC East title since 1995. The stakes are certainly high in this contest. I’m expecting a hard-fought battle from both sides, with the Bills covering the spread, but the Patriots inevitably winning to claim another division title.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Bills at Patriots

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Bills +6.5
Total Points: 38
Money Line: Bills +240; Patriots -305


Overall: Bills 10-4; Patriots 11-3
ATS: Bills 9-4-1; Patriots 8-6
O/U: Bills 3-11; Patriots 5-9

Injury Report


Out: T Ty Nsekhe (ankle)

Questionable: DT Corey Liuget (knee)


Out: CB Jonathan Jones (groin)

Questionable: LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (knee), LB Jamie Collins (shoulder), WR Julian Edelman (knee, shoulder), CB Jason McCourty (groin)

Betting Trends

  • The Patriots have won 21 of their last 22 games at Gillette Stadium.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Each of the Patriots’ last five December games at Gillette Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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