While the Jaguars continue to play musical chairs with both on and off-field decisions, they still have two games left to get through a disappointing 2019 season. Gardner Minshew looks as if he’ll once again be without his best receiver in DJ Chark, leaving him with the likes of Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley and Keelan Cole. These receivers do draw a good matchup against a Falcons secondary that allows an average of 170.5 receiving yards and 13.6 YPR to opposing receivers. While Minshew hasn’t been racking up the passing yards since returning, he does have at least a touchdown thrown in his three games since returning in place of Nick Foles. Of course, the biggest weapon in the Jags offense, Leonard Fournette, continues to see massive usage. Despite finding the endzone only three times this season, Fournette is essentially a lock for double-digit carries and a handful of targets against a Falcons defense that allows an average of 90 rushing and 38 receiving yards to opposing backs. Last week, the 49ers rushed over 100 yards against the Falcons for the first time since Week 8, which was last accomplished by the Seahawks.
The Falcons, who are 1-3 against the spread when favored, are riding a modest two-game winning streak heading into Week 16. While the injury bug continues to plague this team, the offense has been humming, even without the services of Calvin Ridley. Julio Jones will be fresh off a Week 15 where he drew a ridiculous 20 targets, which he turned into 13 receptions for 134 yards and two touchdowns. A matchup against Tre Herndon could bring another big week, as the Jags cornerback as allowed 17 YPR on a 47% catch rate. This is also a defense you can run on, which bodes well for Devonta Freeman. The Jaguars have allowed the third-most rushing yards, allowing an average of 118 per game, coupled with 42.7 through the air. While Freeman hasn’t exactly been efficient when healthy this season, this is by far one of the best matchups he’s had all season long.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Jaguars at Falcons
Point Spread: Jaguars +7
Total Points: 45.5
Money Line: Jaguars +250; Falcons -295
Overall: Jaguars 5-9; Falcons 5-9
ATS: Jaguars 6-8; Falcons 6-8
O/U: Jaguars 7-6-1; Falcons 6-8
Questionable: WR D.J. Chark (ankle)
Out: G James Carpenter (concussion)
Notable Prop Bets
- Under 9.5 points 1H -125
- Under -19.5 points -125
- Over 26.5 points -121
- Over 13.5 points 1H -112
- Falcons moneyline and under parlay +275
- The Falcons have lost each of their last eight games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 14 games against AFC opponents.
- Eight of the Falcons’ last 11 games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for details.