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Laying the points with the superior team in 49ers-Rams

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The Rams and 49ers square off in a critical Week 16 matchup. We break down why to lay the points.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and head coach Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers shake hands before a preseason game against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on August 19, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams square off on Saturday in a Week 16 matchup with huge implications for both teams. The 49ers need a win to ensure they have a shot at the No. 1 seed when they travel to Seattle in Week 17. The Rams need a win to keep their faint playoff hopes alive.

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set at 44. The Rams are 9-5 against the spread and have gone over the point total five times this season. The 49ers are 8-5-1 ATS and have gone over the point total seven times this season.

Injury Report

The Rams get back tight end Gerald Everett, although his specific workload is uncertain. They will likely be without cornerback Troy Hill, who is doubtful with a thumb injury. The big question for them is Greg Zuerlein. Their kicker is questionable with a right quad injury, and the team has been working out kickers this week.

The 49ers will get cornerback Richard Sherman and nickel back K’Waun Williams back to shore up their pass defense. They will continue to be without defensive end Dee Ford, safety Jaquiski Tartt, and defensive tackle Jullian Taylor. Their big question this week is Mike Person’s status. The interior offensive line has been especially problematic since Weston Richburg was lost to injury.

Pick Against The Spread

The Rams defense has been inconsistent, which bodes well for Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers offense. Add in Troy Hill’s likely absence, and the 49ers could do some damage in the passing game. I’m concerned about Mike Person’s potential absence, but I think we see a continued adjustment to the game plan to counter the Rams stout interior.

The bigger issue for LA, is the return of Sherman and Williams. Sherman has had some issues with penalties this year, but otherwise is looking like the Sherman of old. Meanwhile, Williams has been arguably the best nickel back in the league. Considering the depth of the Rams receiver corps, having a fully healthy group of cornerbacks is key.

It’s hard to predict the Rams given how inconsistent they have been this season, but this is a game where I think the 49ers win by double digits. They’re coming off a bad loss to the Atlanta Falcons, and I think Kyle Shanahan will have them in position to bounce back in a big way.

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