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Going against the public in picking Patriots vs. Bills

The public is backing Buffalo in a huge AFC East matchup against the Patriots in Week 16. I’m just not ready to back them, so here’s why I’m laying the points with New England.

Tom Brady of the New England Patriots and Julian Edelman react while walking to the sideline in the second half against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on December 1, 2019 in Houston, Texas. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

Week 16 Saturday brings three matchups that are all a lot of fun, but none might be quite as important as the middle game between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. The Patriots have dominated the AFC East for years now, but the Bills are giving them a run for their money. The Patriots would have the edge even in a loss, but it would certainly put them on further notice.

The Patriots are a 6.5-point favorite in this game at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set at 37.5. The Patriots are 8-6 against the spread and have gone over the point total five times this season. The Bills are 9-4-1 ATS and have gone over the point total three times.

Injury Report

The Bills are in relatively good shape health-wise, with backups OL Ty Nsekhe and DT Corey Liuget the only players on their final injury report. The Patriots are a different story, with cornerback Jonathan Jones ruled out due to a groin injury. Starters Jamie Collins, Julian Edelman, and Jason McCourty are all listed as questionable, while defensive tackle Danny Shelton is officially off the injury report.

Pick Against The Spread

The public is backing Buffalo in a big way in this game. I think this ends up a fairly low scoring game, but I just can’t back such an overwhelming public-loving dog. I could very well be wrong, but I’m going to lay the points with New England. The Jonathan Jones injury is particularly concerning on defense, but I just don’t know that Josh Allen will be able to take advantage of it.

The Patriots are coming off a solid showing against the Bengals, but I’m still not jazzed about their offense. This is a matchup of two strong defenses, and it will come down to which offense might get that one key break. I have a little more faith in the Patriots doing so in this one. I could see this ending up something like 13-6 or 17-10 — somewhere in that range where the Patriots just barely cover.

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