This game isn’t set up for many fantasy points to be distributed which means a single play could likely decide if you cash or not. The Patriots are in the playoffs but need this game to assure themselves the division title and they need to win their last two to assure a bye week and the No. 2 seed.
The Bills are also in the playoffs and even if they beat the Patriots here, they would still need them to lose to Miami to take the division. But that chance is still there, so they will play all out.
Sony Michel, RB, Patriots ($7,200)
I know, I know, Michel has been awful this season and he is not an obvious play in the captain’s seat, but with all things considered, he has the best matchup of the game. The Patriots rank 1st against the pass and 7th against the run in DVOA while the Bills rank 3rd against the pass and 19th against the run. The matchup stats also bear those rankings out.
The Patriots can’t seem to get anything going through the air as it is, with Tom Brady throwing for just 128 yards against the Bengals last week on 29 attempts. Instead, they went to the run, giving Michel 19 carries for 89 yards and two targets, of which he caught one for 14 yards. With Julian Edelman and Brady both not 100 percent, we should see another run heavy game.
Devin Singletary, RB, Bills ($9,200)
Singletary is the other player I’d look at for the captain’s seat, as the Bills will also have trouble throwing the ball. They probably will have trouble running against the Patriots as well, but I expect them to follow a similar blueprint to Sunday’s game against the Steelers when they gave Singletary 21 carries and three targets. Josh Allen enjoys stealing Singletary’s goal line touchdowns, which is one reason I’m leaning Michel as captain even though Singletary is a better runner. The last time these two teams met, T.J. Yeldon caught four targets for 68 yards and was the main receiving back and now that is Singletary’s job. .
Rex Burkhead, RB, Patriots ($3,400)
Burkhead was the most productive per touch runner last week, as he rushed six times for 53 yards and a touchdown and caught two targets for six yards. Trying to decide between him and James White is tough, but he did out-touch White 8 to 6 and while he’s healthy, they’ll give him work and there’s a chance it is ramped up a bit this week after his strong Week 15.
Cole Beasley, WR, Bills ($8,000)
With Stephon Gilmore limiting John Brown last time these teams met, Beasley was the top target, as he caught 7-of-12 targets for 75 yards. There’s a good chance he will again be asked to move the chains in this likely low scoring affair.
I am an avid fan and user (my username is cogresha) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.