Welcome back to Week 16! We have just one more week of full NFL slates after this one, and that means time is running out on what has hopefully been a great NFL DFS season. There are three games on the Sunday main slate that have totals over 49 points, so expect some scoring this weekend.
The concept behind stacking a QB with his WR is simple; both players benefit from each completion, doubling the benefit of that play for your fantasy lineup. As Adam Levitan pointed out, 79 percent of the lineups that won DraftKings’ Fantasy Football Millionaire contests used a QB stack in their lineup. With the significance of stacking in mind, this article aims to highlight the best stacking options for Sunday’s main slate.
The Chargers have disappointed greatly this season, but that doesn’t mean we should shy away from them in daily fantasy. Just two weeks ago, the team posted 45 points against the Jaguars, but the 10 point performance against the Vikings are likely sticking in the front of everyone’s mind. Expect this combination to come in at low ownership on Sunday, despite going up against the Raiders’ 31st-ranked pass defense based on Football Outsiders DVOA.
Allen has accumulated 129 targets this season, which has him tied for sixth in the NFL. He has accounted for 25% of Charger targets, and that volume appears to be going underpriced. Allen’s 70% catch rate means he has a fairly high floor, but could also reach a high ceiling if he breaks off a long score. The Raiders have given up 10 games of at least 20 DKFP this season.
The Seahawks have a 30.5 team total on DraftKings Sportsbook, the highest on the main slate. Additionally, the Cardinals rank 28th in pass defense DVOA. Wilson has gone over 28 DKFP five times this year, giving him a proven high ceiling. The only concern is that Seattle runs an extremely conservative game-plan, and could ease up on the passing quickly if the Seahawks jump out to an early lead.
Figuring out which wideout to stack with Wilson is the key question. Metcalf has just a 2% lower target share than Tyler Lockett, but is $1,700 lower in price. Since Week 10, Metcalf leads Lockett in targets 33 to 24. Certainly Lockett is an explosive player in his own right, but without a tangible difference in ownership, Metcalf appears to be the clear better value. Josh Gordon’s suspension may even send an extra target or two his way.
The Dolphins are routinely featured in here as a team to stack against, and with good reason. Miami has the league’s worst pass defense by DVOA, and has allowed a 7.2% passing touchdown rate. Dalton is still extremely cheap for a starting quarterback, coming in at a lower price than players such as Gardner Minshew, Drew Lock, and Jacoby Brissett. There are slight weather concerns in this game, but it is difficult to pinpoint such things until the hours leading up to kickoff.
Boyd is the unquestioned top target of this offense. He is ninth in the NFL with 126 targets. He has a 24% target share in the games Dalton has started. With Auden Tate on injured reserve, that volume appears to be secure. Miami has allowed seven wide receiver performances of at least 25 points this season. Boyd has completed that feat twice this year.
2. Matt Ryan ($6,200)/Julio Jones ($8,000), Falcons vs. Jaguars
The Julio half of this stack was great last week, seeing a whopping 20 targets in his first game played without Calvin Ridley. Unfortunately, Ryan could not hold up his end of the deal, but he should have a better chance to this week going up against a Jacksonville defense ranked 21st against the pass, and 29th overall.
This stack also tends to be way more effective when in domes. Ryan has gone over 30 DKFP twice already this season while playing in a controlled environment, and has eclipsed the 20 point mark seven times in such situations. Jones’ 20 targets last week accounted for over 50% of team pass attempts. Even if he cannot get to that same level, he has a ton of upside in this matchup.
Cleveland has not been a particularly poor pass defense this year, ranking 13th in DVOA. However, there are reasons to play Jackson other than what he can do through the air. The second-year passer has accumulated over 1,100 yards rushing to go along with seven touchdowns. On any given week, he could go for 30 DKFP, something he has done a whopping seven times already in 2019.
The best stacking option for Jackson is absolutely the rookie Brown, who has a 20% target share this season. Furthermore, “Hollywood” has the ability to get deep on any play, like he did in Week 1 against Miami when he scored 33.7 DKFP. Brown is still priced in a way that allows him to make tournament value on one play.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is amicsta) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.